Oil shorts are strong, White House clarifies gold bar tariffs, limits gold price gains, focus on meeting Putin and Trump this week

Basic news

On Monday (August 11, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,394.20/ounce, and the US price rose by limited last Friday. Although previous reports of Trump imposing tariffs on gold bars caused the gold price to rise to the level of 3,408.71, after the White House clarified its position on gold bar tariffs, the gold price quickly returned below 3,400; US crude oil trading was around $63.56/barrel, Russian President Putin and US President Trump will meet on Friday, and the market will focus on the results of the meeting between the two sides.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher last Friday, with the Nasdaq hitting a record closing high for the second consecutive day, technology stocks such as Apple rose, and investors were optimistic about potential interest rate cuts. Last week, the three major stock indexes rose sharply.

Apple climbed 4.2%, up 13.3% last week, the biggest single-week percentage increase since 2020. US President Trump said last Wednesday that Apple will invest an additional $100 billion in the United States, with its total eouu.cnmitment to invest $600 billion in the next four years. The S&P 500 technology sector and eouu.cnmunications services sector led the gains and hit a new close high.

Gilead Sciences rose 8.3% after raising its full-year financial forecast, which also boosted the S&P 500. Recent weak economic data consolidated expectations for interest rate cuts, while investors assessed Trump's temporary choice for the Fed's governor.

Trump nominated Milan, chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Council, to replace Kugler for his term as chairman of the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Milan often aligns with Trump, he had previously suggested that Powell was "too late" in lowering interest rates.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Trump's team is reviewing new candidates to replace Powell as Fed chairman next May, including a long-term economic adviser and a former regional Fed president.

CherryLane Investments partner Rick Meckler said: "There are certain investors who think that if the Fed wants to cut interest rates, the primary theme is not to confront the Fed on the issue of interest rate cuts. The other side of the equation is actually tariffs, and how the tariffs will be outcomes are still uncertain."

The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting rose to 89.4%, up from 80.3% a week ago, according to the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The futures market is expected to cut interest rates at least twice before the end of the year.

Trump's measures to significantly increase tariffs on imported products in dozens of countries came into effect last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 44175.61 points, or 0.47%; the S&P 500 rose 0.78% to 6389.45 points; and the Nasdaq rose to 21450.02 points, or 0.98%. This is the 18th time since 2025 that the Nasdaq has hit a closing high and has risen about 11% so far this year. The S&P 500 closed slightly below its record high.

Last week, the S&P 500 rose 2.4%, the Dow Jones rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 3.9%. Inflation data to be released this week will test the upward momentum of U.S. stocks, with some investors saying the stock market may face a correction. The monthly report of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday.

Investors are also paying attention to the U.S.-India trade relations. According to three Indian officials, New Delhi has put aside new U.S. arms and aircraft procurement plans after Trump raised tariffs on Indian exports to 50%.

In the upside stocks, Expedia rose 4.1%, after the eouu.cnpany raised expectations for total bookings and revenue growth for the full year.

According to LSEG data, more than 450 eouu.cnpanies in the S&P 500 have released their financial reports so far, with estimated earnings growth in the second quarter reaching 13.2% on Friday, a sharp increase from 5.8% on July 1.

Gold market

U.S. gold futures shrank its gains last Friday, falling from record highs. The White House reportedly plans to issue an executive order to clarify its position on gold bar tariffs. Earlier, information released by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) website indicated that Washington could impose import duties on specific countries on gold bars, the most widely traded in the U.S. US gold futures remained stable at $3,454.1 in December, setting a record high of $3,534.10 earlier.

Susan, Head of Currency and Marketing, HargreavesLansdown"The panic rise in gold shows that even safe-haven assets cannot be immune to the volatility caused by the chaos in the tariff era," said nahStreeter.

The spread between U.S. futures and spot gold widens to $57, which is now at more than $100 earlier. Spot gold remained stable at $3,396.8 per ounce, but rose 1% last week.

UBS pointed out that if the tariffs continue, the premium of New York gold prices eouu.cnpared with London gold prices is expected to expand further, and the arbitrage opportunities between other smelting centers will also increase. The United States imposes a 39% import tariff on Swiss goods, and Switzerland is continuing to negotiate with the United States on reducing tariffs.

According to two people familiar with the matter, some gold refiners, including a large Swiss entity, have suspended delivery of gold bars to the United States due to uncertainty.

Spot silver remained stable at $38.29, with platinum down 0.5% to $1,327.85 and palladium down 2.2% to $1,125.48. Oil market

Oil prices remained roughly stable last Friday, with the market waiting for Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump to meet on Friday, but oil prices hit its biggest single-week drop since the end of June as the economic outlook hit tariffs.

Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.2% at $66.59 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures remained flat at $63.88.

According to Bloomberg News last Friday, the United States and Russia are seeking a deal to end the Ukrainian war and to bring Russia's seized territory into its control, reports said officials from both sides are in consultation on territorial issues to prepare for the summit between Trump and Putin as soon as this week. The possible meeting raised expectations for a diplomatic end to the Ukrainian war, which could lead to ease of sanctions on Russia, while trade tensions between Trump and Russian oil buyers are also rising.

Last week, Trump threatened that he would increase tariffs on India if India continues to buy Russian oil. ANZ analysts said in a note that higher tariffs on imported goods from numerous trading partners had taken effect on Thursday, raising concerns about economic activity and crude oil demand.

OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the latest in a series of accelerated production growth measures taken by OPEC to regain market share. OPEC's oil production rose further in July after OPEC+ reached a production increase agreement, although additional production cuts in Iraq and the attacks on Kurdish oil fields by drones limited the rise in production, a Reuters survey released on Friday showed. The dollar strengthened last Friday but fell on the weekly basis. The stronger dollar has hurt foreign buyers' demand for crude oil denominated in USD.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar strengthened last Friday, but traders priced more interest rate cuts this year due to weak economic dataInvestors are also evaluating US President Trump's nomination for the Federal Reserve, and the dollar fell on a weekly basis.

The US dollar has fallen since the July employment report released showed that employers increased fewer than expected jobs in the month, and the employment growth rate in the previous months was also significantly lowered. Other data, including weak real estate market and service industry data, also indicate that the economy is slowing down.

Meanwhile, Trump said on Thursday that he would nominate Milan, chairman of the Economic Advisory Board, to fill the final months of a Fed directorship, while the White House will seek permanent members of the Fed's board of directors and continue to search for new candidates for the Fed's chairmanship.

Bloomberg News reported Thursday that Fed Governor Waller, who voted for the rate cut at the last Fed meeting, is becoming a popular candidate for Powell's next chairman after his term ended in May. "This makes people in the FOMC more likely to be more inclined to cut rates," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank. "The impression is that the Fed may turn to rate cuts faster than the market had previously expected, especially based on expectations before last week. There may even be speculation that the Fed's rate cut may be greater than we had expected before."

Traders now believe that the Fed's rate cuts are 89% likely to cut rates at its September meeting, with a 58 basis points cut by the end of the year. Trump also fired a senior Labor Department official after a weak jobs report was released, raising concerns that the Trump administration could have a greater impact on the release of economic data.

Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar index rose last Friday, and Osborne said it might be a consolidation and there is no new news that drives the U.S. dollar index. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.21% at 98.19 points in the late trading day, but fell about 0.5% last week.

The euro fell 0.09% to $1.1655. Bank of America Forex and interest rate analysts noted that among the fund managers it surveyed, shorting the dollar remains the most confident trading strategy for the rest of the year. The next important U.S. economic data will be the July consumer price data released on Tuesday, which will attract attention to see if tariffs will rekindle inflationary pressures.

St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said last Friday that the Fed is currently facing the dual risks of both inflation and employment goals, and decision makers need to weigh which threat seems to be more serious when deciding whether it is appropriate to cut interest rates. The dollar rose 0.41% against the yen to 147.71.

BoJP policymakers debated the possibility of a return to rate hike, one of which said it was possible to raise interest rates this year, and a summary of the July meeting showed that the likelihood of rising borrowing costs increased in the near future.

The pound rose 0.06% to $1.3451, and earlier hit a two-week high of $1.3458. The Bank of England cut interest rates last Thursday, but passed by a slight vote of 5:4, showing a lack of confidence in easing.

International News

Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska

US media revealed: The White House is considering inviting Zelensky to Alaska. US President Trump announced on the 8th that he would meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska, USA on the 15th to discuss the Ukrainian crisis. According to the latest report from NBC on the 9th local time, the White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to Alaska, but has not made a final decision yet. Trump had previously told the media that Putin did not have to meet Zelensky before meeting him.

White House: At present, bilateral meetings between the United States and Russia will be held as Putin's request

According to Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao on August 10, White House officials said on August 9 that US President Trump is open to holding a trilateral summit with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky in Alaska, but will now arrange bilateral meetings between the United States and Russia as Putin's request. According to NBC, the White House had previously considered inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to Alaska to attend the event on August 15 with US President Trump, who will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15.

The US government began issuing H20 licenses to Nvidia

After Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump at the White House, the US Department of eouu.cnmerce began issuing H20 chip licenses to Nvidia. In the past few weeks, the U.S. Department of eouu.cnmerce has not issued this license to Nvidia.

S&P Global: July US CPI data will become a key economic indicator for the new week

S&P Global said that July US CPI data will become a key economic indicator for the new week. With the expectation of tariff policies pushing up inflation, the market is holding its breath waiting for this report. Although current tariff progress (including higher tariffs imposed on August 7 and the latest 100% chip tariff threat) seems to indicate an uptrend of inflation, the overall U.S. consumer price increase in the second quarter has always been below 3.0%. It is worth noting that S&P Global US PMI data, which is a leading indicator of CPI trend, has hinted that inflation may rise in the second half of 2025. Therefore, the upcoming CPI data will verify whether prices began to accelerate in July. This is crucial to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is still on the wait-and-see attitude given the potential price volatility.

Federal dissenting official Bowman: Supporting three rate cuts this year

In her speech on monetary policy and the U.S. economy, Bowman said she favored three rate cuts this year, saying that recent weak labor market data also reinforced her views. The Fed's Policy Development eouu.cnmittee has kept interest rates unchanged this year, and Bowman has supported that position until June. But in July, she and Fed Director Christopher Waller supported a 25 basis point cut. On Saturday, she urged other central bank policymakers to start cutting interest rates at the next meeting of the Fed in September. She saidThe move “will help avoid further and unnecessarily worsening of labor market conditions and reduce the possibility that the eouu.cnmission will need to implement larger policy amendments as the labor market further deteriorates.” Bauman also reiterated that she believes tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to continue to push up inflation. She was appointed as a Fed director by then-President Trump in 2018.

Other side of the artificial intelligence boom: traders accelerate their escape from eouu.cnpanies that may be disrupted

The impact of artificial intelligence on the U.S. financial market is obvious. Nvidia has become the most valuable eouu.cnpany in the world with a market value of nearly $4.5 trillion. Startups from OpenAI to Anthropic have raised tens of billions of dollars. But investors are also increasingly paying attention to the negative impact of this new technology: it could disrupt some industries, just like the Internet back then. Investors have begun betting on the industries in which such disruption will occur, selling stocks of some strategists that are expected to face a decline in demand due to the growing popularity of artificial intelligence applications. Affected include web developer Wix.com Ltd., digital image eouu.cnpany Shutterstock Inc., and software maker Adobe Inc. These three eouu.cnpanies rank among the 26 most vulnerable to artificial intelligence in the eyes of Bank of America strategists. Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, the trends of these 26 eouu.cnpanies have basically remained the same as the market, but since mid-May this year, this group's performance has underperformed the S&P 500 by about 22 percentage points.

Zelensky responded to questions related to Ukrainian territory: There is an answer in Ukrainian constitution

On August 9, local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on his official social platform that the Ukrainian constitution has clarified the country's territorial issues. "The Ukrainian constitution has answered the Ukrainian territory issue. No one will and cannot deviate from this. Ukrainians will not hand over their land to the occupiers." Zelensky emphasized that the Ukrainian people deserve peace, but all partners must understand that true peace must be based on dignity. He said that Ukraine is ready to take tangible actions to achieve peace, but any so-called "solution" that violates Ukrainian interests and excludes Ukrainian participation will be "an anti-peaceful dead plan" and will not work. Zelensky said Ukraine needs a "real, lasting and respected peace by the people" and that Ukraine is willing to work with Trump and all its partners to achieve a true and lasting peace.

Domestic News

Creating a national robot industry integrated application highland dozens of Jiangsu eouu.cnpanies debuted at the World Robot Conference

On August 8, the 2025 World Robot Conference (WRC2025) kicked off in Beijing, and a wonderful "robot mobilization" once again attracted global attention. The reporter learned that dozens of Jiangsu eouu.cnpanies such as Magic Atom, Youliqi, Leju Robot, Cancer Intelligence, etc., have unveiled innovative products and various scenario application solutions at WRC2025. Relying on a strong industrial foundation, a eouu.cnplete intelligent manufacturing industry chain and a superior business environment, Suzhou provides enterprises with a high-quality ecosystem of technology research and development and industrial implementation, attracting more and more leading enterprises to gather, and accelerating the promotion of embodied intelligent technology from R&D to mass production.

Nvidia Omniverse and Vice President of Simulation and Simulation Technology: China meets all the necessary conditions for the development of the robot industry in the new era

2025 World Robot Conference will be held in Beijing from August 8 to 12. On August 9, at the main forum of the conference, Rev Lebaredian, vice president of simulation technology at Nvidia Omniverse and Rev Lebaredian, said in his speech that China is a "special" existence in the field of robots, and it just meets the necessary conditions for the development of all industries, which allows us to enter a new era of robots smoothly. China has almost half of the world's developers and researchers, who are in cutting-edge fields and eouu.cne from top universities, some of which are the most outstanding institutions in eouu.cnputer science and artificial intelligence.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for July 2025

In July, the effect of policy on expanding domestic demand continued to appear. The consumer price index (CPI) turned from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% to a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, which remained the same year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, and the increase expanded for three consecutive months. Affected by seasonal factors and uncertainty in the international trade environment, the industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the domestic market eouu.cnpetition order continued to be optimized, with a month-on-month decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, the same as last month.

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