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market analysis
The Fed is about to make a speech, is the next jump of the euro/dollar to go up or down?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: The Federal Reserve is about to make a speech, is the next jump of the euro/dollar to go up or down?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (August 6), the euro/dollar maintained a narrow range of fluctuations during the day. The trading in the European period was around 1.1580, and the overall operation was within the range of 1.1500-1.1600, below the Bollinger middle track. Although the overall performance of the euro zone retail sales data released during the day was relatively strong, it failed to effectively stimulate exchange rate fluctuations. The technology is maintained in a neutral pattern, and market sentiment is cautious and waiting for the next round of statements from Federal Reserve officials.
Fundamentals
Eurozone retail sales increased by 3.1% year-on-year in June, 1.9% higher than the previous value and 2.6% better than the market expectations, setting the largest year-on-year increase since September 2024. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales in June increased by 0.3%, rebounding from the revised value of -0.3% in May, but slightly lower than the market expectations of 0.4%. From the perspective of major economies, Germany (0.9%), Spain (1.2%) and Belgium (0.5%) performed outstandingly, while France fell by 0.9% month-on-month, which posed a certain drag on the overall growth rate.
Although the overall data is improving, it has failed to leverage the action energy on the exchange rate, reflecting that the current market's confidence in the economic recovery of the eurozone is still fragile. On the other hand, on the United States, the ISM service industry PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1 in July, indicating that the expansion momentum of the service industry has weakened, especially the employment sub-indicator fell to 46.4, highlighting the slowing trend of the labor market. Although the price payment sub-item rose to 69.9, suggesting that inflation is still resilient, the slowdown in overall economic momentum has continued to heat up expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.
Currently, the CMEFedWatch tool shows that the market cuts interest rates by 2 on the Fed in SeptemberThe expectation of 5 basis points is close to 90%. However, if Fed officials release hawkish remarks, intending to hedge market bets, it may trigger a phased rebound in the US dollar. Overall, fundamentals are intertwined with long and short, and the exchange rate lacks momentum for directional selection in the short term.
Technical:
From the K-line chart, the trend has fluctuated weakly since the euro/dollar fell below the Bollinger middle track in late July. The current price is running below the Bollinger middle track (1.1652) and is close to the Bollinger lower track (1.1444), reflecting that although the downward trend has slowed down, it has not been reversed.
The K-line entity has been small recently, indicating that both bulls and bears have no obvious advantages, and a typical consolidation pattern. Analysts believe that the upper resistance level can be paid attention to 1.1620 (100-day moving average) and 1.1660; the lower support is located at 1.1540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.1500 integer mark, and 1.1450 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).
In terms of MACD indicators, the MACD bar chart has been narrowing continuously, and the dual lines of DIFF and DEA run below the zero axis. The short-term momentum is weak, but the downward speed has slowed down significantly, and there may be a possibility of building a bottom.
The relative strength index RSI (14) hovered at the 47.85 line and was in the long-short equilibrium area. If it can return to above 50, it is expected to open up the technical rebound space; if it falls below 45, the weak pattern will be confirmed again.
Preview of Market Sentiment:
The overall market sentiment is cautious. Although fundamental news is slightly supported, the technical form and expected game have caused a lack of clear direction for short-term exchange rates. The euro/dollar is currently in the sideways stage of "waiting for catalysts", and the market dares not act rashly.
From the perspective of implicit volatility of options, short-term volatility expectations are at a low level, reflecting that the market has a weak willingness to price sharply changes in the exchange rate. The Fear and Greed Index remains neutral, indicating that there is no extreme emotional tilt in the current market, and funds tend to wait and see rather than bet on the trend to continue or reverse.
In addition, a new round of speeches that Fed officials are about to start is seen as a potential trigger. If the hawkish stance re-dominates, the US dollar will gain short-term support, and vice versa, further suppressing the US dollar and boosting the euro's rebound.
Future Outlook:
Short-term Outlook:
Analysts believe that if subsequent Fed remarks maintain a moderate tone and cooperate with the weakening of US data, the euro/dollar is expected to challenge the 1.1620 and 1.1660 resistance areas, forming a phased rebound. However, if the Fed's attitude is hawkish or inflation expectations rise again and the US dollar may strengthen rapidly, the euro/dollar will face the test of dual technical support of 1.1500 and 1.1450.
Medium- and long-term outlook:
From a medium-term perspective, the euro zone economic recovery has not yet been solid, and the weakness of French consumption data also indicates significant internal differences, and the ECB's expectation of loose policy remains. Analysts believe that if US inflation continues to remain high and the employment market recovers significantly, the US dollar will still have support in the medium term, and the exchange rate may be difficult.Break through the key resistance range of 1.1700;
But considering the cyclical characteristics of the US monetary policy shift, if the substantial interest rate cut channel is entered from September, the euro may usher in a phased strength by then, and the space above 1.1800 is worth paying attention to.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Market Review]: The Fed's speech is imminent, is the next jump of the euro/dollar to go up or down?", which was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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