Trump is diagnosed with intravenous disease, gold price is affected by the dollar's strengthening, lawmakers will accuse Powell of perjury

Basic news

On Friday (July 18, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,341/ounce, and gold prices fell slightly on Thursday, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the strong U.S. economic data. At the same time, the market is waiting for the progress of tariffs to become clearer, and investors are still cautious; U.S. crude oil trading was around $66.24/barrel, U.S. oil rebounded after approaching the $65/barrel mark on Wednesday, as drones attacked Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for the fourth consecutive day, indicating that risks in this turbulent area continue to exist.

Stock and Nasdaq both hit record highs on Thursday as investors welcomed strong economic data and earnings reports that U.S. consumers are still willing to spend.

In the previous seven trading days, the Nasdaq index closed at all six trading days, while the S&P 500 hit its six best closing prices since June 27.

The Nasdaq rose 0.74% to 20,884.27 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.54% to 6,297.36 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed higher, up 0.52% to 44,484.49 points.

Wall Street fell for a moment after President Trump announced tariff measures on "Liberation Day" in early April, but then rebounded strongly, and this week was seen as the "touchstone" of these gains as a series of key economic reports will be released, while the second quarter financial report season will also kick off.

Ant, chief marketing strategist at AmeripriseFinancial"Economic data and corporate financial reports show that economic fundamentals are still solid, so the market can continue to rise this week with some data support."

U.S. retail sales rebounded strongly in June, and data released on Thursday showed that investors saw new economic momentum and consumer confidence, despite mixed inflation data, producer prices stagnated that month, while consumer inflation surged.

Investors have been paying attention to whether Trump's tariff policy has begun to penetrate the U.S. economy. The Fed has previously stated that it will suspend interest rate cuts until it sees inflationary impacts from rising import taxes.

Federal Governor Coogler reiterated this position on Thursday, saying the rate cut was temporarily shelved as Trump tariffs began to push up consumer prices.

According to CME FedWatch tools, traders currently expect the likelihood of a rate cut in September is about 54%, while the rate cut in July has been almost ruled out.

In addition to strong retail sales data, consumer-oriented businesses in the United States have also published positive financial forecasts. Pepsi rose 7.5% after forecasting optimistic results, driven primarily by demand for energy drinks and healthy sodas, which helped offset concerns about a decline in core profits for the year.

United Airlines rose 3.1% after it expected demand to grow since early July, bringing a rare highlight to the aviation industry affected by Trump's budget cuts and trade tensions. eouu.cnpetitors Delta and American also climbed more than 1.4%.

Tech stocks have also been boosted, especially U.S. chipmakers, Saglimbene of Ameriprise said that before the financial reports of all the big tech eouu.cnpanies are released in the next week or two, you will see single producers of these (artificial intelligence) chips saying their demand is very strong. Therefore, the trend of large technology stocks is quite optimistic, which is also the reason why technology stocks lead the rise today. "Tech and industrial stocks both hit record highs on Thursday, but financial stocks led the gains, up 0.9% in the nine sectors that closed higher. Gold prices fell slightly on Thursday, affected by a stronger dollar and strong U.S. economic data, while investors remain cautious as the market waited for a clearer tariff progress. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3337.43 per ounce, which had earlier fallen below $3309.59. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $3345.3. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "The dollar has risen slightly due to the latest U.S. data, and U.S. Treasury yields have also risen. Therefore, this has caused some weakness in the gold market. ”

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week, suggesting stable employment growth in July, with retail sales in June stronger than expected, up 0.6%, although some of the gains may reflect tariff-driven price increases.

Federal Director Coogler said Thursday that as the impact of Trump administration tariffs begins to spread to consumer prices, the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" and needs to adopt restrictive monetary policies to curb inflation psychology.

In terms of trade, Japan's chief trade negotiator held talks with the U.S. Secretary of eouu.cnmerce on U.S. tariffs, and Japan is working to avoid being imposed at 25% tariffs. If an agreement cannot be reached by the August 1 deadline, the United States will do so.

Palladium rose 3.8%, hitting its highest level since September 2023, of $1,277.78.

Spot silver rose 0.3% to $38.07 an ounce, while platinum rose 3.1% to $1,460.13.

Oil market

Oil prices rose $1 on Thursday, after drones hit Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields for the fourth consecutive day, indicating that risks in the turbulent area remained.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $69.52 per barrel, up 1.46%. U.S. crude oil futures closed at $67.54 a barrel, up 1.75%.

Officers pointed out that Iran-backed militias could be the culprit of the attack on Iraq's Kurdistan oil fields this week, but no organization has claimed responsibility for it.

Two energy officials said oil production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has dropped by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, more than half of the region's normal production (about 280,000 barrels per day).

Lipow Oil Associates president Andrew Lipow said, "Part of today's gains are a response to Iraq's drone attacks, which shows how fragile oil supply is in the face of low-tech attacks." Lipow said the market is still nervously awaiting U.S. President Trump's tariff decision.

Trump said he would send tariff letters to some small countries soon and hinted that an agreement could be reached with the EU. "Oil prices will remain volatile in the short term, as there is uncertainty about the final scale of U.S. tariffs and their impact on global growth," said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at PanmureLiberum. "The U.S. government data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, while analysts surveyed by Reuters expect inventory to drop by 552,000 barrels.

Foreign market

The dollar rebounded across the board on Thursday, and the trend fluctuated on Wednesday, when U.S. President Trump denied reports that he planned to fire Fed Chairman Powell.

The dollar rose this month, and analysts said it was mainly a consolidation following a sharp decline most of the year. However, the U.S. dollar index is still down 9% so far this year. U.S. Treasury yields rose this month, supporting the dollar's rebound.

BannockburnGlobalForex Chief Market Strategist Marc Chandler said: "After a historic sell-off in the first half of the year," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at BannockburnGlobalForex.The US dollar began to strengthen in the second half of the year. This seems to be mainly due to short cover due to the stronger U.S. interest rates. ”

Earlier data showed that U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, and the number of initial U.S. jobless claims fell last week, and the dollar continued its rally.

However, the dollar then quickly fell to the level before the data was released, which Chandler said indicates “a lack of short-term confidence.”

Investors are weighing a variety of factors that may affect the direction of the market, including the economic impact of Trump’s tariff policy, the U.S. fiscal and debt prospects, and the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Former Fed governor Wash is seen as a potential successor to Fed Chairman Powell, who said Thursday that a new agreement is needed between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. He mentioned the 1951 alliance The agreement separates federal debt management from monetary policy.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.75. The euro fell 0.45% against the dollar to $1.1582, after hitting its lowest level since June 23, the pound weakened after official UK data showed on Thursday that wage growth in Britain slowed in May and the number of employees fell further in June. The pound fell 0.1% against the dollar to $1.3405.

The market's concerns about key Japanese elections and the difficulty in reaching a trade deal with the United States to avoid tariffs increased. Polls show that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing losing a majority of the Senate The danger.

Japan's top trade negotiator spoke with U.S. eouu.cnmerce Secretary Lutnik on the phone on tariffs. Japan is trying to avoid being imposed at 25% tariffs. If a deal cannot be reached by the August 1 deadline, the United States will do so.

The yen fell 0.58% against the dollar to 148.73 yen, the lowest level since April 3 on the previous trading day.

The Australian dollar fell after Australian employment data was seriously below expectations and the unemployment rate hit a new high since the end of 2021. The Australian dollar fell 0.64% against the dollar to 0.6484 at the end of the trading day.

International News

Federal Governor Waller: FOMC should Fed governor Waller explained three reasons for supporting the rate cut. First, tariffs are a one-time price increase and will not trigger sustained inflation after a brief surge. As long as inflation expectations are stable (and it is true at the moment), the Fed's standard practice is to "ignor" this type of price level impact. Second, a large amount of data shows that monetary policy should be close to neutral, not restrictive. The real GDP growth rate in the first half of this year may be around 1%, and it is expected that the rest of 2025 will remain weak, far lower than the FOMC eouu.cnmittee's median expectation of long-term GDP growth. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is 4.1%, close to the eouu.cnmittee's estimate of long-term unemployment rate. If excluded, I think it isWith temporary tariff impact, overall inflation is slightly above 2%, which is close to our target. Overall, these data mean that policy interest rates should be maintained near neutral levels - the median neutral interest rate estimated by FOMC eouu.cnmittee members is 3%, while the current interest rate is 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points higher than 3%, which is obviously not in the neutral range. The final reason for supporting the current rate cut is that although the labor market appears to be fine, taking into account the private sector employment growth has approached stagnation after the expected data correction, other data also show an increase in downside risk in the labor market. With inflation approaching the target and the risk of upward inflation is limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before cutting interest rates.

U.S. Housing Supervisor: Members of Congress will accuse Powell of perjury

U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Administrator: According to very reliable congressional sources, one or more members of Congress may accuse Powell of perjury to the Department of Justice for allegedly perjurying the renovation of the $2.5 billion Federal Reserve Building.

US media: Trump will issue AI-related decrees

According to reports, the White House is preparing to issue executive orders for "WokeAI". Sources said the order will be part of a package of measures announced next week, outlining Trump's "action plan" for artificial intelligence. The bill will require artificial intelligence eouu.cnpanies that receive federal contracts to remain politically neutral, and other decrees are expected to drive U.S. technology exports and accelerate the construction and development of data centers.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Cryptocurrency Act

On July 17, local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Guidance and Establishment of a US Stablecoin National Innovation Act (Genius Act) with 308 votes in favor and 122 votes against, aiming to carry out major legislative reforms to cryptocurrency regulation. The bill will be submitted to U.S. President Trump and is expected to be signed into law by Trump. In addition, the House of Representatives also passed the second wider cryptocurrency market structure bill, the Clarity Act, with 294 votes in favor and 134 votes against the day. The bill will be submitted to the Senate for review. The proposal aims to establish a broader and more industry-friendly regulatory framework for digital assets.

Trump is diagnosed with venous disease

U.S. White House Press Secretary Levitt said on the 17th that President Trump has recently experienced swelling of his legs and has been diagnosed with a venous disease. Levitt said at a press conference that day that an ultrasound examination of Trump's legs showed that he had chronic venous insufficiency. "This is a eouu.cnmon disease, especially in people over 70 years old." Levitt said there were no signs of serious diseases such as heart failure and renal dysfunction. Trump is 79 years old. When he watched the FIFA Club World Cup final in New York last week, photos showed his ankle swelling, triggering speculation about his health.

The UK's employment market continues to be sluggish

The UK's National Bureau of Statistics released a report on the 17th saying that due to the rising labor costs, the UK's employment market continued to be sluggish, and the unemployment rate rose to a new high in many years. According to the report data, from March to May this year, the unemployment rate of the UK's population aged 16 years old reached 4.7%, an increase of both year-on-year and month-on-month, reaching the highest level in four years; during the same period, the number of registered employment in the UK fell by 0.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. The report quoted the National Bureau of Statistics survey results as saying that some UK eouu.cnpanies may no longer recruit new employees or no longer fill vacancies for departing employees. Some analysts believe that as employers' national insurance payments are increased, eouu.cnpanies are more cautious in recruiting. Jane Graton, deputy director of public policy at the British Chamber of eouu.cnmerce, said the data released this time showed that the UK labor market continued to weaken as unemployment rate rises, job openings decrease and wage growth slowed. She believes that the growth in the UK still outperforms inflation, but the labor cost pressure of enterprises is continuing to erode operating profits.

U.S. tariff revenue surged to US$87.2 billion in the first half of this year

U.S. government data shows that in the first half of this year, US tariff revenue soared to US$87.2 billion. Tariff revenue has risen rapidly since the Trump administration implemented so-called reciprocal tariffs in April this year. Tariff revenue reached US$26.6 billion in June alone, four times the usual level. According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, as of the end of June, 10% of the benchmark tariffs had brought in more than $17.7 billion in revenue, while specific tariffs for the automotive industry also contributed more than $10.7 billion. As of Sunday, the overall average real tariff rate in the United States had reached 20.6%, the highest level since 1910, according to estimates from the Yale University Budget Laboratory. At the same time, tariffs account for a proportion of the total U.S. imports are also rising rapidly. A new round of reciprocal tariffs scheduled to eouu.cne into effect on August 1 is expected to further increase this figure.

The Bank of England joins European regulators and warns of the risk of the dollar

Three sources said the Bank of England has asked some banks to test their resilience to the potential shock of the dollar, the latest sign of how the Trump administration's policies erode people's trust in the United States as the cornerstone of financial stability. U.S. President Trump has broken down U.S. long-term policies in areas such as free trade and defense, forcing policy makers to consider whether urgently providing the dollar can still be relied on during a time of financial pressure. The Bank of England has asked some banks to evaluate their dollar financing plans and their reliance on the dollar, including short-term demand, after similar requests from European regulators, a person familiar with the matter said. Another source said a global bank based in the UK has been asked to conduct internal stress tests in recent weeks, including the possibility that the dollar swap market could eouu.cnpletely dry up. One of the sources said that given the dollar's dominance in the global financial system and the bank's dependence on the dollar, no bank can withstand such a shock for more than a few days.

Domestic News

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: It is necessary to place urban renewal in a more prominent position and coordinate the implementation of a series of people's livelihood projects, safety projects, and development projects

The Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the eouu.cnmunist Party of China held a study (expanded) meeting of the theoretical study group to convey and study the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference. The meeting emphasized that urban renewal should be placed in a more prominent position and a series of people's livelihood projects, safety projects and development projects should be implemented in a coordinated manner. Accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development and steadily promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. Build a eouu.cnplete eouu.cnmunity to better care for the "old and young". Promote the construction of new urban infrastructure and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of old pipelines. Promote the construction of urban infrastructure lifeline safety projects and coordinate urban flood control system and waterlogging management. Continue to promote the classification of domestic waste. Improve the historical and cultural protection and inheritance system, improve the urban style management system, strengthen architectural design management, fully reflect the continuation of the cultural context, and shape the urban characteristics with Chinese aesthetics and the style of the times. The meeting emphasized that we must pay more attention to governance investment, put in a good job of "embroidery" and promote the modernization of urban governance system and governance capabilities. Promote the focus of governance and supporting resources to the grassroots level, and use mechanisms such as "whistleblowing report" and "handle eouu.cnplaints immediately" to quickly respond and efficiently solve the urgent and difficult problems of the people. Promote smart and efficient urban governance, vigorously promote the "one-stop service" of government services, the "one-stop management" of urban operations, and the "one-stop enjoyment" of public services, so that urban operations are more efficient and people's lives are more convenient.

Minister of eouu.cnmerce Wang Wentao: Support the free trade pilot zone to further proactively connect with international high-standard economic and trade rules

Wang Wentao, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of eouu.cnmerce, published an article in the Study Times to point out that the construction of open platforms should be promoted. Implement the strategy of improving the free trade pilot zone, expand the authorization of reform tasks, promote the quality and efficiency of the free trade pilot zone, speed up the implementation of the core policies of the Hainan Free Trade Port, support the free trade pilot zone to further proactively connect with international high-standard economic and trade rules, carry out institutional opening experiments with greater efforts, increase stress tests in the field of foreign investment access, and create a highland to attract foreign investment.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Trump was diagnosed with intravenous disease, gold prices were affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, and lawmakers will accuse Powell of suspected perjury" and was carefully eouu.cnpiled by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for the support!

In fact, responsibility is not helpless, it is not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life for us today. I will try my best to organize the article.