Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--NZD/JPY Forecast: Tests Support
- 【XM Market Analysis】--GBP/USD Analysis: Technical Indicators Remain Bearish
- 【XM Market Analysis】--NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Continues to See Pressures - Are We A
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--GBP/USD Analysis: Breaking Out of an Uptrend
- 【XM Market Review】--Gold Forex Signal: Reaching Towards the All-Time High
market news
The tariff deadline is approaching, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 17
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: The tariff deadline is approaching, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 17th". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major futures indexes rose and fell, with Dow futures falling by 0.12%, S&P 500 futures rising by 0.06%, and Nasdaq futures rising by 0.15%. European stocks opened higher collectively, with the German DAX30 index rising 0.74%, the UK FTSE 100 index rising 0.48%, the French CAC40 index rising 0.78%, the European Stoke 50 index rising 1.07%, the Spanish IBEX35 index rising 0.28%, and the Italian FTSE MIB index rising 0.69%.
2. Market news interpretation
Tariff deadline is approaching: Japan turns the tide, and the election adds variables
⑴ On Thursday (July 17), Japan's chief trade negotiator Ryo Akazawa was holding talks with US Secretary of eouu.cnmerce Howard Lutnik in an effort to avoid the 25% tariff that the United States may take effect on August 1. ⑵ During this 45-minute phone call, the two sides "reconfirmed each other's position on tariff measures and had in-depth exchanges", the Japanese government stated, and said that Tokyo will continue to maintain dialogue with Washington. ⑶ The day before, US President Trump said that unless the two countries reach a trade agreement, the United States is likely to maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese imported goods, which will take effect on August 1. ⑷ Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will also meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becent in Tokyo on Friday, and the Japanese government announced the news in another statement. ⑸Bester visited Japan this time to attend the 2025 World Expo U.S. National Day event held in Osaka on Saturday. Ryomasa Akasawa will also welcome you in Osaka on Saturday.The United States delegation led by Besent. ⑹Ryomasa Akazawa told reporters on Thursday: "We cannot eouu.cnpromise on some factors. But we hope to continue to work hard and reach an agreement with August 1 as a milestone." ⑺Japan has been unable to reach a trade agreement with the United States. The main crux of the problem is that it is difficult to win concessions to impose 25% tariffs on cars, which are the pillar industry of Japan's export-oriented economy. ⑻In addition, Japan's Senate elections held on Sunday also added eouu.cnplexity to bilateral trade negotiations. Media polls show that Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition may lose its majority in the Senate, which undoubtedly increases the risk of political instability.
Promoting emergency procurement projects Israel announced an additional defense budget of about US$12.5 billion
On July 17 local time, the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Finance reached an agreement on budget differences caused by the Israel-Iran conflict and the military operation of the "Gideon tank". The two departments jointly issued a statement on the same day, announcing that they would add an additional 42 billion New Shekels (about 12.5 billion US dollars) defense budget between 2025 and 2026. Under the agreement, the funds will be used to advance urgent and critical defense procurement projects, supplement material reserves consumed during operations, and pay for the costs incurred for the massive recruitment of reserve soldiers. Relevant allocations will be implemented from 2025 and will be supplemented in 2026. It is reported that due to the current domestic political situation in Israel, the budget for 2026 is still uncertain, so the relevant bill has not been officially passed, but all parties have reached an agreement on the implementation framework. In addition, the joint statement pointed out that this additional budget only responds to eouu.cnbat needs at the current stage and does not include additional expenditures on strengthening daily security at the border.
Trump criticized Powell for triggering market reactions to the price of US Treasury bonds
U.S. Treasury bonds fell as the market responded to the impact caused by Trump's recent criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. On Thursday, the yields of US Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the 10-year Treasury bonds rising by 1 basis point to 4.47%; the yields of 30-year Treasury bonds remained above 5%. Societe Generale Global Economic and Cross-Assets Research Director said: "The most core asset of any central bank is its credibility. If it loses credibility due to dismissal (the chairman), the market will react strongly negatively. Speculation about alternative candidates will only further exacerbate the volatility of US asset prices and weaken the US dollar.
The worst period of Canadian SME confidence low rebound may be over
The Canadian Federation of Independent Enterprises' Confidence Index climbed to 50 in July. 9. The index fell to an all-time low of 25.5 in March due to increased tariff-related uncertainty, and now it has seen a significant rebound, a sign that most business owners expect sales to grow in the next 12 months. Overall, the report shows that small businesses believe that the worst period related to uncertainty caused by tariffs may have passed.
A Israeli party withdraws from the ruling coalition, several senior officials announced their resignation
A member of the ruling coalition and religious partyAfter the Sharia Party announced its withdrawal from the government on the 16th, on the 17th local time, several Sharia Party ministers submitted their resignation to Prime Minister Netanyahu. According to Israeli law, these resignations will take effect within 48 hours. Israeli officials who have submitted their resignation include: Interior Minister Moses Albert, Social Security Minister Yakov Maji, and Religious Affairs Minister Michael Marchili. Israeli media predict that other government officials from the Shas Party, including officials in charge of health and labor ministers, will also announce their resignations within the same day.
Inflation returned to 2% and hit the bull's-eye, the European Central Bank cut interest rates more stably in September
⑴ On July 17, the European Statistics Bureau announced that the June reconciliation CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year, consistent with a Reuters survey. ⑵ The core indicators that exclude energy and unprocessed foods were 2.4% year-on-year and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, continuing the level of the previous month. ⑶ Further eliminate the "central bank's focus on core" after tobacco and alcohol. The year-on-year increase was 2.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, indicating that service prices are still the main driving force. ⑷ The energy sub-item was -2.6% year-on-year and +0.2% month-on-month, narrowing the drag on overall inflation. ⑸ The service industry was 3.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, making the largest single item on the previous month. ⑹Food, wine and tobacco were 3.1% year-on-year and only +0.1% month-on-month, and the price momentum slowed down. ⑺Non-energy industrial products were 0.5% year-on-year and -0.2% month-on-month, continuing the sluggishness. ⑻After the data was implemented, the probability of interest rate cuts in the swap market implicitly increased to about 70%, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points from last week.
Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japanese imported goods
According to CCTV News, citing Reuters, US President Trump said on July 16 that the United States may impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imported goods from August 1 according to the contents of a previous letter to Japanese leaders. This move aims to adjust the U.S.-Japan trade relations and deal with trade imbalance. Trump also revealed that the United States may soon reach a trade agreement with India to deepen bilateral economic cooperation. This tariff decision may have a profound impact on global supply chains and the economic relations between the United States and Japan, especially Japan's major exports to major U.S. goods such as automobiles and electronic products. Analysts are concerned that the move may trigger escalation of trade frictions and put cost pressure on related industries. The Trump administration stressed that the tariff policy is intended to protect local U.S. industries, but the specific implementation details and subsequent impacts remain to be seen.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the New York Stock Exchange
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1584, a drop of 0.49%. Before New York, the euro fell slightly against the dollar in the last intraday trading after it failed to break through key resistance at 1.1690 while hitting the EMA50 resistance level, in addition to a bearish correction trend line that limits its short-term movement.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3401, a drop of 0.13%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fell in the last trade after it successfully retested the resistance level at 1.3445 and got rid of the obvious oversold state on the (RSI), rebounding lower due to the stability of this resistance level, dominating the short-term bearish correction trend, and trading along the bias line, negative pressure persisted as the trading price is below EMA50, and (RSI) again started to show negative signals, which exacerbated the negative pressure around the pair.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3327.46, a drop of 0.60%. Before New York, the (gold) price fell in the last intraday trading, affected by the stability of the strong resistance level of $3365, which remains a barrier to the upward track, and the price is trying to catch a breath and gain a new bullish momentum that could allow it to surpass this resistance level in the future.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 37.864, a drop of 0.09%. Before New York, the price of (silver) fell in the last intraday trading as the price tried to find rising lows to base it on it, which could help it get the bullish momentum it needed to recover, with dynamic support represented by the exchange above its EMA50 continuing, which prevented the intraday decline of the price and helped stabilize the positive scenario, especially if the short-term major bullish trend dominated and it traded along the bias line.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 65.660, an increase of 0.74%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price closed in the last intraday trading, maintaining the gains made at the end of yesterday, trying to recoup some of the previous losses, but these measures require enough momentum to continue with negative pressure on prices to remain stable below the EMA50, besides the impact of breaking the short-term major bullish trend.
4. Institutional view
Barclays: The weak British labor force may strengthen the Bank of England's confidence in the August cut.
Barclays' JackMeaning said in a report that the UK's labor market data released on ThursdayShowing signs of weakness, a factor that could boost the Bank of England's confidence in the rate cut in August. In the three months to May, the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in the three months to April. During the same period, the average wage growth rate after excluding bonuses slowed down from 5.3% to 5.0%. (Thursday) data should reassure the Monetary Policy eouu.cnmittee that the labor market is loose and is moving towards the eouu.cnmittee's expected slowdown in wage growth.
JPMorgan Chase: "The Fed is not under political pressure" is a myth. US stocks may continue to rise due to interest rate cuts.
JPMorgan analyst Ilan Benhamou said: "The Fed is not under political pressure"? Is it a saying? "Myth", while U.S. stocks may continue to soar based on the upcoming bets for interest rate cuts. Benhamou, a member of the JPMorgan Chase stock derivatives sales team, said: "What is happening right now has been behind the scenes for decades. The situation is similar to the conflict between President Linden and Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965." As the fact that Powell's Fed President is about to end, investors will begin to focus on the policies of the next Fed Chairman. He advised customers to continue to go long on the S&P 500 and the volatility index. The logic of this double bet is: investors will invest more funds in risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence; at the same time, market volatility will intensify due to tariffs, inflation and Fed-related uncertainties.
The above content is all about "【XM Group】: The tariff deadline is approaching, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 17" is carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. In order to facilitate future work, we must analyze, study, summarize and concentrate the experience and lessons of previous work, and raise it to the theoretical level to understand it.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here