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The threshold of 75,000 for non-farm, the critical interface of long and short for USD/Canada

Wonderful introduction:

Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Non-agricultural threshold of 75,000 yuan, long and short critical interface for US dollar/Canada dollar". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (September 5), the US dollar/Canadian dollar was blocked at around 1.3850 on the previous trading day and continued its retracement. Trading in the European session was around 1.3800, and four consecutive positive trends were temporarily suspended. The market focuses on the non-agricultural sector in August that will be announced during the North American period, and the employment and wage signals will directly drive the fluctuations of the day and the closing direction of the weekly line.

Brands:

Currently drives resonance from two sets of employment data and repricing of interest rate expectations. First, the market generally expects that the new non-agricultural income in August will be 75,000, higher than the 73,000 in July; the unemployment rate may rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%; in terms of salary, the average hourly wage is expected to slow down to 3.7% year-on-year, eouu.cnpared with 3.9%. The report is scheduled to be released at 20:30 and is seen as a key anchor point in determining the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut this month. At the same time, traders' consensus on the policy path this year is to initiate a rate cut in September, with a total of at least two times throughout the year, with a 25 basis points each time. This "early overdraft" easing expectation has made the US dollar bulls defensively in the near future.

In addition, trade-related uncertainties are also fermenting: the United States seeks the Supreme Court to quickly accept the tariff ruling appeal, and declares that it will impose tariffs on semiconductor imports that have not been put into production in the country, and at the same time launch a re-arrangement for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement - these statements increase the uncertainty of cross-border supply chains and pricing prospects, which theoretically has a double-edged impact on the Canadian dollar. Crude oil has performed relatively modestly, making it difficult to provide a continuous boost to the Canadian dollar, which has stronger eouu.cnmodity attributes. Under the superposition of the above factors, the exchange rate is still "obeying" the US dollar direction and event-driven volatility changes.

Technical aspect:

From the 60-minute chart, the middle rail of the Bollinger band is 1.3814, the upper rail of the upper rail of 1.3838, and the lower rail of 1.3790; The price has fallen continuously since the high point of 1.3844. The latest fluctuation around 1.3795 has fallen below the middle track and approached the lower track, showing a typical rhythm of "retracement - sticking to the track - trying to stabilize". The horizontal support line of 1.3765 can be seen in the figure, and the lower 1.3744 is the lowest, forming a short-term multiple static support area.

Indicators, MACD shows that DIFF is -0.0004, DEA is -0.0001, the bar chart is -0.0006, and the green column is extended, the momentum is bearish but still mild; RSI (14) is located at 39.7010, which is in the weak range of the downward channel and does not trigger extreme overselling. Judging from the price position and Bollinger band pattern: the bandwidth is moderately expanded and the lower track is not obviously moved upward, indicating that the short-term volatility has risen, but the trend intensity is limited; if the price stops falling near 1.3790 and pulls back to the middle track 1.3814, it corresponds to the mean regression of the "lower track rebound - backtesting the middle track"; if it continues to fall along the lower track and effectively breaks down by 1.3765, it will turn into a "weaker track along the track" structure, and you need to be vigilant about the inertia continuation of the bottom to 1.3744 in the future.

In terms of resistance, it is 1.3814 (Bolling middle rail/front high resonance), 1.3838 (Bolling upper rail) and 1.3844 (stage high point); in terms of support, first look at the adjacent prices of 1.3790 (Bolling lower rail) and 1.3789, and below are the static ladders of 1.3765 and 1.3744. Overall, the hourly level switches from the previous rising channel to the high oscillation weak, and the short-term trend is still dominated by the game between the mean regression in the range and the edge of the track.

Future Outlook:

Short-term (next 24-48 hours): Before the data is implemented, it is expected that 1.3765-1.3838 will constitute the main fluctuation range. If the non-farm/wage is weak and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the probability of the pressure on the US dollar increases, and the exchange rate may first test the 1.3790-1.3789 line. If the volume breaks down and closes below 1.3765 at the hourly level, 1.3744 will become the next observation point; near this area, RSI is expected to enter the brink of oversolding, and the probability of a technical rebound increases. If the data is stronger than expected and the US dollar receives a pulse boost, you need to pay attention to the re-take of 1.3800 and the backtest of 1.3814; after regaining and standing firm in the middle track, the space for price expansion to 1.3838 and 1.3844 will be opened. If the MACD cylinder simultaneously shrinks green and turns red, it will form an internal confirmation of the upward pattern.

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The threshold of 75,000 for non-farm, the critical interface of long and short for USD/Canada

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