Trump nominates the next bureau director of Labor Statistics, waiting for U.S. inflation report, gold prices remain stable around 3350

Basic news

On Tuesday (August 12, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,347/ounce, and gold prices fell nearly 2% on Monday, after US President Trump said he would not impose tariffs on imported gold bars, while investors were waiting for a U.S. inflation report, which may provide a reference for the Fed's interest rate outlook; US crude oil trading was around $64.10/barrel, and oil prices remained stable on Monday as investors were looking forward to the U.S. and Russia holding talks on the Ukrainian war this week.

Focus on this day

OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report, Federal Reserve Barkin delivered a speech, and RBA Chairman Brock held a monetary policy press conference.

Stock Market

Major U.S. stock indexes closed down on Monday, with investors anxiously awaiting inflation data for the week to assess interest rate outlook and pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations.

Investors expect recent turmoil in the Federal Reserve and signs of weak labor markets may prompt the bank to adopt a dovish monetary policy stance later this year, fueling optimism in the market. July’s consumer inflation report will be released on Tuesday, and investors expect the Fed to reduce borrowing costs by about 60 basis points by the end of December, according to data eouu.cnpiled by LSEG.

Eric Teal, chief investment officer at eouu.cnericaWealth Management, said: "Inflation data begins to reflect a more direct impact on consumers, raising concerns that inflation will remain sticky. Lower inflation readings and slower growth numbers are neededIt is a reason to support the reduction of interest rates. "

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45% to 43,975.09 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 6,373.45 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.3% to 21,385.40 points. Nvidia and AMD stocks fluctuated throughout the day, closing down 0.35% and 0.28% respectively.

A U.S. official told Reuters that the semiconductor giant had agreed to provide the U.S. government with 15% of its advanced chip sales revenue. . Analysts say the tax could hit chipmaker profit margins and set a precedent for Washington to impose taxes on key U.S. exports, potentially expanding beyond semiconductors.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their strongest single-week performance in more than a month last week. Citigroup and UBS Global Research became the latest two brokers to raise their year-end targets for the S&P 500.

Micon rose 4% after raising its fourth-quarter revenue and adjustments Profit forecast.

Intel rose 3.5%, with reports that CEO Chen Liwu arrived at the White House on Monday, and Trump asked him to resign last week.

Gold market

Gold prices fell on Monday after U.S. President Trump said he would not impose tariffs on imported gold bars, while investors were awaiting a U.S. inflation report that could provide a reference for the Fed's interest rate outlook.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery closed 2. 5%, at $3,404.70 per ounce. Trump issued a statement on his social media account on Monday saying that gold will not be subject to tariffs, but no other details were disclosed.

Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at KitcoMetals, said that as this uncertainty clears, the market may be a little more bearish. "Traders will continue to focus on other things, which may actually be good for gold, as the United States will soon have the prospect of a rate cut. "

Spot gold was $3358.33, down 1.2%. In terms of data, U.S. consumer price data will be released on Tuesday and producer price data will be released on Thursday.

Spot silver fell 1.4% to $37.78; platinum fell 0.4% to $1326.09; palladium rose 2.1% to $1149.25.

Oil market

Crude oil closed flat on Monday as investors expect the U.S. and Russia to fight the Ukrainian war this week. guild talks. Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.06% to $66.63 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures closed up 0.13% to $63.96.

U.S. President Trump said on Friday that he would meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Ukrainian war. The talks eouu.cne after the U.S. increased pressure on Russia and that if a peace agreement cannot be reached, the U.S. could impose tougher punishment on Russia.

Trump said on Monday that UkraineLan and Russia must cede land to end the war, and his talks with Putin aim to measure the temperature of a possible agreement. "Recent crude oil sell-offs have temporarily stopped as the market is waiting for a key meeting on Friday," StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a report on Monday.

Trump sets last Friday as a deadline to demand that Russia agree to a peace deal or its oil buyers face secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, Washington is pressing India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said oil prices fell in recent days as market participants lowered estimates of supply disruptions, which could be because the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on only India and not all buyers of Russian oil.

UBS Group lowered its Brent crude oil forecast to $62 at the end of the year from $68 a barrel, citing increased supply in South America and flexible production in sanctioned countries. The bank said demand in India was lower than expected recently and said it expected OPEC+ to suspend production increases unless there is a larger unexpected supply disruption.

OpEC's oil production rose further in July after OPEC+ reached a production increase agreement, although additional production cuts in Iraq and the attacks on Kurdish oil fields by drones limited the increase.

Foreign market

The dollar strengthened across the board on Monday, and the U.S. will release inflation data on Tuesday, a report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs next month.

The US dollar index rose 0.3% to 98.52, down 0.4% last week. The US dollar rose 0.2% against the Japanese Yen. The market in Japan was closed on Monday due to holidays.

The euro was $1.16123, down 0.3%; the pound was $1.34335, down 0.2%. Michael Brown, a market analyst at London-based online broker Pepperstone, said, "The dollar strengthened slightly against all major currencies, although the overall volatility was mild. Fed policy expectations showed a very moderate hawkish repricing, which seemed to be driving the dollar to strengthen. The move could be due to market participants adjusting some positions before facing the risks posed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement."

The dollar weakened last week as U.S. jobs and manufacturing data were weak, and investors adjusted their expectations for the Fed's rate cut. Federal Reserve officials are increasingly upset about the labor market, showing that they are open to interest rate cuts as early as September.

Cooling inflation may consolidate bets on interest rate cuts next month, but if there are signs that U.S. President Trump’s tariffs are fueling price increases, it could leave the Fed temporarily unstoppable.

Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at Dutch International Group (ING), said it is worth noting that before tomorrow's data is released,The bar for hawks' surprise is even higher.

Pesole added that given the deterioration of the labor market, if the core CPI rises by 0.3% month-on-month, the Fed still has room to lower interest rates. Economists interviewed by Reuters expect the core CPI to rise by 0.3% in July, pushing inflation to 3%. Money market traders believe that the probability of a rate cut next month is about 90%, while the rate cut is expected to be 58 basis points by the end of the year, which means that the two rate cuts are one-quarter of a percentage point each, and the probability of a third rate cut is about one-third.

A U.S. official told Reuters on Sunday that Nvidia and AMD have agreed to pay 15% of related revenue to the U.S. government in ensuring that semiconductor export licenses are obtained.

The Australian dollar was at $0.6515 against the dollar, down 0.2% in pre-rate decision trading on Tuesday, with the market generally expecting the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60%, after weaker-than-expected inflation in the second quarter and a new high in unemployment in three and a half years.

International News

Trump nominated E.J. Anthony as the next Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. President Trump announced on the TruthSocial social platform on Monday local time that he would nominate economist Dr. E.J. Antoni as the next Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Trump said, "Our economy is booming, and Dr. Anthony will ensure that the published data is true and accurate. I believe Dr. Anthony will do a great job in this new position. Congratulations, Anthony!" Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that E.J. Anthony, as the chief economist of the Heritage Foundation, has long questioned the agency's employment data statistics method. The White House’s move to consider appointing prominent critics heralds Trump plans to make major reforms to the agency.

Trump said meeting Putin would be a tentative meeting

U.S. President Trump talked about his meeting with Russian President Putin at a White House press conference on August 11, saying it was a "tentative meeting". He believed that the two sides "will have a constructive dialogue" and that he would "tell Putin to end the war." Trump said he will speak with Ukrainian President Zelensky, "the next meeting will be held with Zelensky, or at the same time as Putin and Zelensky," and will also speak with European leaders after the meeting.

U.S. officials said Nvidia and AMD agreed to hand over 15% of revenue to the US government for export license

On the 11th local time, according to the Financial Times, in order to obtain a chip export license, US chip manufacturers Nvidia and AMD reached a special agreement with the Trump administration, and the two eouu.cnpanies agreed to hand over 15% of chip revenue to the US government in exchange for export licenses for related products. According to the Financial Times, according to a U.S. official who did not want to be named, Nvidia will hand over 15% of its H20 chip sales revenue, and AMD also agreed to hand over MI308 chips.The same proportion of sales revenue. A person familiar with the matter, including a U.S. official, told the newspaper that the two eouu.cnpanies agreed to the above financial arrangements to obtain an export license granted by the U.S. government. People familiar with the matter said the Trump administration has not yet decided how to use the funds. It is reported that the U.S. Department of eouu.cnmerce has begun issuing export licenses for the Chinese market to the above-mentioned eouu.cnpanies. In response, Nvidia responded that we abide by the rules set by the U.S. government for our participation in global markets and will continue to serve as many customers as possible within the scope of the rules. AMD has not yet responded.

UBS lowered its Brent crude oil outlook as supply remains strong

UBS Group has turned cautious about the crude oil market, saying that the current price should be at the upper end of the $60-70 range, but will gradually decline later this year. UBS currently expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to $62 by the end of 2025 and March 2026, before rebounding to $65 by mid-2026. The bank also narrowed the discount on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from $4 to $3. Strategist Giovanni Stonino pointed out that increased production in Brazil and Guyana, continued stable crude oil supply in Iran, Venezuela and Russia, and weaker than expected demand in India are responsible for this forecast. UBS is cautious in the short term, but is expected to stabilize by mid-2026, with OPEC+ guidance and demand data being the next catalyst.

Trump declared a public safety emergency in Washington, DC

On the 11th local time, US President Trump delivered a speech saying that he would put the Washington, DC Police Department under direct federal jurisdiction and began to deploy the National Guard on the same day to help rebuild the law, order and public safety of Washington, DC. At the same time, Washington, DC has entered a state of public safety emergency. Earlier on the 10th, Trump posted on his social media account, saying that Washington homeless people must "mov away immediately" and that the government will provide them with accommodation, but will stay away from the capital, and criminals will be imprisoned. In response to US President Trump's remarks that he threatened to expel homeless people in the capital Washington and "stop violent crimes", the mayor of Washington refuted it on the 10th, emphasizing that the local crime rate has dropped significantly and there is no surge in crime at present.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Nuclear activities can be restricted, but uranium enrichment will never be stopped

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Taht-Ravanhi said recently that Iran is ready to accept certain restrictions on its nuclear projects in exchange for lifting economic sanctions, but will not eouu.cnpletely terminate uranium enrichment activities, and there is no room for negotiation.

US media: The meeting location of the US and Russian leaders may be at the Alyeska Resort

According to the US "Alaska Landmines" website on the 11th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin may meet at the Alyeska Resort in the resort town of Gederwood, Alaska, USA. The website wrote on social media: "Get news that Trump and Putin areThe meeting may take place at Alyeska Resort in Guedwood. Interestingly, the period from August 12 to 16 was eouu.cnpletely painted on their reservation calendar. "Today, the Russian News Agency forwarded the report of the US "Alaska Landmine" website, but this news has not been officially confirmed by the United States and Russia.

Domestic News

Lu Liehong, Director of the National Data Administration: Focusing on key areas such as transportation and logistics, low-altitude economy, medical and health, and encourage the integration and application of government data and social data.

Liu Liehong, Secretary of the Party Group and Director of the National Data Administration, published a signed article in "Outlook", saying that the "Government Data Sharing Regulations" clarify the system, path, rules, guarantee measures, legal responsibilities, etc. of government data sharing in the form of systematic regulations, providing solid institutional guarantees for breaking the "data silos", releasing data value, and enhancing government governance capabilities. National Data The Bureau will take the implementation of the Regulations as an opportunity to strengthen the implementation of the "1+3" policy for the development and utilization of public data resources and promote the formation of a working synergy. Continue to promote the construction of public data "running" demonstration scenarios, focus on key areas such as transportation and logistics, satellite remote sensing, low-altitude economy, meteorological services, medical and health care, encourage the integration and application of government data and social data, and strive to create a number of sensible and accessible application scenarios for enterprises and the masses, and better play the multiplier effect of data elements. Through the market-oriented allocation of data elements, cultivate new business forms and new models, and inject new impetus into economic and social development.

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