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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CATEGORIES
News
market analysis
Euro/USD enters "event vacuum trial and error period"
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Euro/USD enters the "event vacuum trial and error period"". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (August 8), the euro/dollar fell from a weekly high, and the European session was trading around the 1.1640 front line. The direct catalysis of this cycle of decline is the news that Christopher Waller is regarded as a popular candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Jerome Powell, and the US dollar rebounded from a low level.
Earlier, Reuters quoted information that Trump's team members were "impressed" after meeting Waller (he has not yet met the president in a direct manner); Waller was appointed to the Fed during his first term, and his recent statements of "lower interest rates" have attracted widespread attention from the market, but his professional reputation is still believed to not hurt the credibility of the Federal Reserve.
At the same time, Stephen Miran in the field of fiscal and economic policy is regarded as a popular choice for entering the Fed Council and filling the vacant seats of Adriana Kugler. It will have voting rights at regular meetings in September, October and December. The outside world interprets it as the White House's forward-looking layout of the "looseer" path.
On the macro level, the number of people who requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 226,000 (expected 221,000, the previous value was 218,000); the growth rate of non-agricultural unit output in the second quarter was 2.4% lower than expected, and unit labor costs rose 1.6% slightly higher than expected 1.5% but remained moderate. Atlanta Fed Bostic emphasized the upward risks of tariffs to inflation in an online event and predicted that only once rate cuts will be made in the second half of 2025, and is still cautious about whether to cut interest rates in September. According to Reuters, the news that Trump will meet with Russian President Putin next week has boosted the vision of potential "reconciliation" in Ukraine, and has formed marginal support for the euro in recent days. US TodayThe schedule is light, and only St. Louis Fed Chairman Mussalem's speech is worth noting.
Finance:
The US dollar rose slightly in the uncertainty of the "new Fed Chairman's candidate" and the pull of the labor market's "marginal weakness". If Waller is on the rise, the market tendency is interpreted as "neutral dove": he advocates lower interest rates, but emphasizes data dependence, which means that the path may be smoother rather than radical. If Miran enters the market in the short term and has three voting rights, the market will trade in advance the possibility of "the eouu.cnmittee is more willing to discuss relaxation".
On the data side, the initial market consensus of 226,000 is higher than 221,000, plus the previous value of 218,000, pointing to a moderate cooling of employment momentum; 2.4% per unit output is less than the strong range, and 1.6% per unit labor cost is slightly higher than expected, but it is still in the "tolerable" range. Overall, the cooling of growth + moderate cost has accumulated momentum for medium-term interest rate cuts, but Bostic only recognized the statement of "one-time interest rate cut" in the second half of 2025, reminding the market: the stickiness of inflation may cause short-term "pre-loosening" bets facing recurrence. Geographically, the "US-Russia Meeting" + Ukrainian peace expectation boosts the euro's risk premium in the short term; but before the Fed's personnel and path are settled, the US dollar's "event-driven" elasticity is still strong, and the exchange rate's sensitivity to news will remain high. Today, only Mussalem spoke, and the above topics will still dominate the market.
Technical aspect:
The four-hour chart (240 minutes K) and the indicator resonate with the indicator: the Bollinger band is gently opened, the upper and lower rails are located at 1.1701/1.1513, respectively, and the middle rails are 1.1607. After the price fell back from the high of 1.1698, it is still running above the middle track.
The Bollinger upper rail 1.1701 and the nearest high point 1.1698 form a first-line resistance zone. If a strong breakthrough is not possible, the short-term trend is more likely to maintain the upper and lower range oscillation of the middle rail. The kinetic energy slowed down after the MACD golden cross, indicating that the upper action energy has weakened marginally but has not yet turned up; the RSI (14) reading is 56.7765, which is in a relatively strong neutral area.
The 1.1607 below is the primary dynamic support. If it falls below, look at the Bollinger lower track 1.1513; the 1.1391 lower in the farther is a strong support belt. The upper resistance is the resonance zone of 1.1698 and 1.1701, and the previous height is 1.1788.
Overall, the retracement above the Bollinger middle rail stabilizes - testing the upper rail again is the current higher probability path; but if the MACD column quickly falls back to near the zero axis and falls below 50 with the RSI, the lower edge of the range will become the main line.
Prevention of Market Sentiment:
Since this week, US dollar sentiment has switched from "finding interest rate cut anchor" to "volatility trading driven by personnel game." The market has a dilemma on the interpretation of Waller and Miran: on one hand, it is betting on "more loose"; on the other hand, it is vigilance on "Feder independence and long-term inflation stickiness." Initial requests 226,000 and 2.4% of output to strengthen the narrative of "growth slowdown" but BoStic only gave guidance on a rate cut once in the second half of 2025, suppressing excessive "quick reduction" transactions.
The emotional level is therefore manifested as: it is unwilling to increase positions significantly in the US dollar, and prefer to conduct mean regression and range strategies near key positions. On the other hand, the heating of risk preference brought by the "US-Russia Meeting" adds points to the euro, but geopolitical progress is highly uncertain. Once expectations fail, the aforementioned "risk premium takeoff" will push the euro back to the middle or even the lower track again. The eouu.cnmon short-term volatility on the contract side (option angle) converges first and then expands, which is in line with the current graphical characteristics of MACD kinetic energy flattening and oscillating near the median RSI; on the eve of the weekend when the event density is not high, gamma and time value may suppress the unilateral continuity of the trend.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Euro/USD Enters the "Event Vacuum Trial and Error Period"". It was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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