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Even with rising inflation, interest rates are expected to be cut to 4.0%

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Despite rising inflation, interest rates are still expected to be lowered to 4.0%. Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 19:00 Beijing time this Thursday (August 7), with market participants expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.0% from the current 4.25%. Financial markets also expect seven of the nine members of the Monetary Policy eouu.cnmittee (MPC) to vote for the rate cut, while only three members supported the decision in the last meeting.

The announcement will be accompanied by minutes of meetings and monetary policy reports, a quarterly report showing the economic analysis of officials and the inflation forecasts of MPC, which is the basis for policy makers' decisions.

Lastly, President Andrew Bailey will hold a press conference to explain the reasons behind the decision and may provide hints about the direction of monetary policy in the future.

British Economic Outlook: Why It Is Important

Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at its June meeting. However, three MPC members pointed out that "the labor market is further significantly loose", low consumer demand and the near-sustainable level of eouu.cnpensation agreements as reasons for the rate cut.

There has since been concerning macroeconomic data. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), GDP shrank by 0.1% month-on-month in May, following a 0.3% decline in April. The report also shows that "of the three major industries in May 2025, production output was the largest contributor to the decline in monthly GDP, down 0.9%. Construction output also fell 0.6%. These data were partially offset by the 0.1% increase in service output in May 2025." It is worth reminding that the initial estimate of GDP in the second quarter will be released on August 14.

At the same time, the UK's inflation rate rose to its highest level in more than a year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.6% year-on-year to 3.4% in May. Meanwhile, the core annual CPI rose to 3.7% from 3.5% in May. ONS pointed out that food prices rose the largest in June since February 2024, while service industry inflation remained at 4.7%.

Lastly, employment-related data are less worrying, as the labor market continues to be loose. The unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in April from 4.4% at the beginning of the year.

Bank of England officials will need to assess which has a greater impact, slowing economic growth or rising inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, President Andrew Bailey said in an interview with The Times, "I really believe the path to interest rates is downward."

Regarding economic forecasts, policy makers may raise inflation expectations and lower growth-related expectations.

How will the Bank of England interest rate decision affect GBP/USD?

MPC's tasks are not easy and voting may be divided. Generally speaking, market participants expect interest rate cuts, which would not be surprising. Voting differences among MPC members may shake the pound, while pessimistic corrections in growth and inflation may also have an impact. Market participants will also pay close attention to Bailey's speech. Despite the poor macroeconomic situation, if his remarks are more hawkish, the less likely it is that the pound will fall.

Before the announcement was released, affected by the decline of the US dollar, the pound/US dollar continued its rise during the Asian and European session on Thursday, once hitting a high of more than one week to 1.3376, an increase of about 0.16%, slightly upward towards the high end of the range. Still, the expected Bank of England rate resolution seems more like a downside risk to the pair.

FXStreet chief analyst Valeria Bednarik pointed out: "The GBP/USD hovered near the weekly high above 1.3330, with no technical signal indicating further gains. The daily chart shows that the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) provides resistance around 1.3389. Once the upward breaks, the pair may turn bullish, but considering the Bank of England's rate cut expectations, there is little chance that this will happen." /p>

Bednarik added: "In the downside, you need to pay attention to the 1.3250 area. Once it falls below this area, the pound/USD may turn bearish. The middle support is at 1.3200, followed by the August low of 1.3141."

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Despite rising inflation, interest rates are still expected to be lowered to 4.0%. It is carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Even with rising inflation, interest rates are expected to be cut to 4.0%

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Even with rising inflation, interest rates are expected to be cut to 4.0%

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason