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The "life and death line" of the US dollar index is in a hurry! 97.77 Defence Line Countdown

Wonderful Introduction:

Love sometimes does not require the promise of vows, but she must need meticulous care and greetings; sometimes she does not need the tragic spirit of Liang Zhu turning into a butterfly, but she must need the tacit understanding and eouu.cnpanionship with each other; sometimes she does not need the follower of male and female followers, but she must need the support and understanding of each other.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The "life and death line" of the US dollar index is in a hurry! The Countdown to the 97.77 defense line falls." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (August 6), the US dollar index continued its recent weak performance. Market sentiment is affected by a eouu.cnbination of multiple factors, including expectations of progress in the Fed’s nomination, Trump’s recent remarks about tariffs, and weak U.S. economic data. The US dollar index shows signs of oversold technology, but fundamental uncertainty still dominates market sentiment. This article will eouu.cnbine the latest market trends to deeply analyze the current trend of the US dollar index from the two dimensions of fundamentals and technical aspects, and make an outlook on future trends.

Market background: Uncertainty dominate sentiment

At the beginning of this week, the US dollar index gradually declined after the sharp fluctuations after the release of non-agricultural data. The weak performance of ISM services data on Monday further weakened the dollar's rebound momentum. Meanwhile, several key information Trump revealed in an interview with eouu.cnBC has injected new uncertainty into the market. First, Trump said he would soon announce the nomination for the Fed chairman, including Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Chris Waller and David Malpass. The news has sparked widespread speculation in the market about the Fed's future policy stance. In addition, Trump's statement on tariffs in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries, as well as the possible extension of the trade truce with China, has also aggravated the market's risk aversion to a certain extent. Although market expectations for an extension of a trade truce are relatively stable, tariff remarks still put moderate pressure on non-U.S. currencies such as the RMB.

From the fundamentals, the internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve are also worth paying attention to. Today's market will focus on speeches by FOMC members Lisa Cook and Susan Collins. Both members are voting eouu.cnmittee members and tend to be dovish. Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September have heated up after last week's weak non-farm data were released. If the speeches of the two eouu.cnmittee members further strengthen this expectation, the US dollar index may face greater downward pressure. Analysts from well-known institutions pointed out that the overall weak trend of the US dollar this week may continue because of the market's dovish repricing of the Fed's policy and the policy uncertainty that Trump's early nomination for the Fed chairman may bring.

State analysis: Policy expectations are intertwined with external pressure

The nomination of the Federal Reserve chairman is undoubtedly one of the core focus of the current market. Trump recently made it clear that Treasury Secretary candidate Scott Bessent is no longer on the short list of Fed chairmen, and Wash, Hassett, Waller and Malpass are the main candidates. Among them, Wash is considered a potential positive factor for the US dollar because of his hawkish stance and monetary view on inflation. In a conversation with the Hoover Institute in May this year, he emphasized that restoring price stability is the key to the Federal Reserve's reshaping credibility. If Wash is nominated, the U.S. dollar index may be supported by market expectations of hawkish policies. By contrast, Hassett and Malpass are considered more dovish and may be more inclined to conform to Trump's policy intentions, which may be a negative factor for the dollar. Waller is regarded as an intermediate option, and the impact of its nomination on the US dollar may be relatively neutral.

In addition to Fed policy expectations, Trump's tariff rhetoric has also added eouu.cnplexity to the market. Although the market generally expects that the U.S.-China trade truce will continue, the potential implementation of tariffs in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries may still put pressure on global risky assets and non-U.S. currencies. In addition, the continued tension in Russia and Ukraine has also brought certain risk aversion demand to the market, partially supporting the US dollar's position as a safe-haven currency, but this support strength seems to be relatively limited in the current environment.

It is worth noting that Trump's recent public criticism of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job data revisions did not trigger a significant market reaction. However, if the new Fed chairman candidate echoes this view, it may trigger market concerns about the consistency between Fed policy and official data, which in turn affects the stability of the US dollar. Overall, fundamental factors point to the fact that the US dollar will still be under pressure in the short term, and market sentiment tends to be cautious under the dual effects of policy uncertainty and weak economic data.

Technical analysis: Oversold signals and key nodes

At the technical level, the US dollar index currently shows a clear weak pattern. According to the latest data, the US dollar index failed to effectively stabilize after falling below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (98.3086), indicating that bear momentum still dominates. Relative strength index (RSI, cycle 14) is currently at 35.0472, is close to the oversold area, suggesting that there may be a technical repair in the short term. At the same time, the lower rail of the Bollinger band has been broken down, and the MACD fast and slow line is entangled below the zero axis, indicating that the market momentum is relatively short, but the possibility of short-term correction is increasing.

Short-term trend possibility analysis

Oversold repair scenario

If the US dollar index gains support near 97.7781 (78.6% retracement level), it may trigger a technical rebound, with the target pointing to the psychological threshold of 98.00, and even further pullback to the 61.8% retracement level (98.3086). From the indicator, if RSI rebounds from the oversold area to above 40 and MACD forms a golden cross, it will provide further confirmation of the rebound momentum. This scenario may be driven by short-term improvement in market sentiment or easing of dovish remarks by Fed officials.

Continue the downward trend

If the support level of 97.7781 falls, the US dollar index may further fall to the previous low of 97.1022, and even challenge the key support area in 2023 of 96.80-97.00. The expansion of the Bollinger Band opening and the continued pressure on the lower track both imply that the bear momentum is still strong. If MACD forms a dead fork again and RSI fails to rebound effectively, the downward trend may continue further.

Key Observation Signal

Rounce Confirmation Signal: Pay close attention to whether the US dollar index can stand firm at 98.00 and drive RSI back to the neutral area (40-50). If the price breaks through 98.3086 and stabilizes, it may indicate a short-term bottom.

Continuous decline signal: If the rebound fails to break through 98.3086 and MACD shows a dead cross, the bear trend may further strengthen. Be wary of the rapid price drop to 97.1022 or lower.

It should be emphasized that the dynamic evolution of technical indicators requires eouu.cnprehensive judgment based on real-time data and market sentiment. Although the current technical aspect is oversold, fundamental factors may have a stronger driving effect on short-term trends.

Future trend outlook

Looking forward in the next week, the trend of the US dollar index will be affected by multiple factors. From a fundamental perspective, the progress of the Federal Reserve chairman nomination will be the focus of market attention. If hawkish candidates such as Wash are nominated, the US dollar may receive some support; on the contrary, if dovish candidates such as Hassett or Malpass are elected, the US dollar may face further downward pressure. In addition, the speeches of FOMC members and the market's adjustments to the September interest rate cut expectations will also have a direct impact on the US dollar trend. Tariff remarks and the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may continue to inject risk aversion into the market, but their support effect on the US dollar may be relatively limited.

In terms of technology, the US dollar index is currently at a critical node, and the support level of 97.7781 will become a watershed in the short-term trend. If the price stabilizes and breaks through 98.00, a round of technical rebound may be started; if the price falls below 97.7781, it may further fall to 97.1022 or even 96.80-97.00area. Market participants need to pay close attention to changes in indicators such as RSI and MACD, as well as the performance of prices near key levels.

In general, the US dollar index still faces downward pressure in the short term, but the oversold signal provides the possibility of a technical rebound. Future trends will depend on the evolution of Fed policy expectations and the progress of external risk events. Market participants need to remain vigilant and make dynamic adjustments in eouu.cnbination with real-time data.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The "life and death line" of the US dollar index is in a hurry! The Countdown to the 97.77 defense line falls", which is carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The "life and death line" of the US dollar index is in a hurry! 97.77 Defence Line Countdown

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