The EU calls on the United States and Russia to restart nuclear strategic dialogue, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 6

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.35%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.23%. The German DAX index rose 0.02%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.20%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.28%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.22%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The EU calls on the United States and Russia to restart the nuclear strategic dialogue

The EU's High Representative for Security and Foreign Policy Karas issued a written statement calling on the United States and Russia to restart the nuclear strategic dialogue. The statement said that with the US-Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty about to expire in February 2026, the EU calls for the restart of strategic dialogue and take practical measures to further reduce the nuclear arsenal. The statement said that irresponsible nuclear remarks, opaque expansion of nuclear arsenals and the pursuit of nuclear capabilities of new forces have endangered international peace and security.

Tariff storm escalates! India's anti-dumping investigation is "difficult to production", and the high 25% tariff may ignite the stainless steel market

⑴ On August 6, Beijing time, India's Jindal Stainless Steel eouu.cnpany revealed that the government's anti-dumping investigation on the import of cheap stainless steel has been postponed, mainly due to trade uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff remarks. ⑵ The Indian Stainless Steel Development Association, which belongs to the eouu.cnpany, submitted a petition to the General Trade Relief Bureau of the Federal Trade Department in late July. ⑶ It is reported that Indian goods will face 25% tariffs from the United States starting this Friday. Trump also warned that given that India imports oil from Russia, it may impose in the future."Very considerable" additional tariffs. ⑷Affected by this, the Indian Trade Relief Agency is expected to take an additional two to three months to initiate the investigation, which undoubtedly brings more uncertainty to India's domestic stainless steel industry. ⑸ Jindal Stainless Steel eouu.cnpany still achieved an 11% profit growth in the first quarter, and domestic sales accounted for 91% of total sales, showing its strong resilience. ⑹ However, the delay in anti-dumping investigations, coupled with the looming tariff threat, could put the Indian stainless steel market in a more eouu.cnplex situation.

Uber's performance and outlook both exceeded expectations and announced a $20 billion buyback plan

Uber announced a third-quarter performance outlook and quarterly financial report on Wednesday, and announced a new $20 billion stock buyback plan. This shows that its core online ride-hailing and delivery businesses still have room for growth to accelerate. The eouu.cnpany said that the frequency of users has increased, and the service content is expected to reach more consumers through cross-selling online ride-hailing and delivery services and adjusting service content to a wider range of customer needs. According to the agency's calculations, total bookings for the current quarter are expected to grow 18% to 21%, faster than the 17% increase in the second quarter. But in premarket trading in New York, Uber (UBER.N) gave up earlier gains, which seemed to suggest investors may be expecting more positives. Executives are expected to hold an earnings call with analysts at 8 a.m.

The RBI intends to change its fund management model to help entities feel interest rate changes

A eouu.cnmittee of the RBI recommends that central banks should adopt a more flexible way to manage the operations of providing funds to banks, a move aimed at ensuring that changes in borrowing costs can be transmitted more clearly to the real economy. The eouu.cnmission's report released on Wednesday showed that the RBI should not rely primarily on existing methods of injecting or returning funds into banks every two weeks, but should give priority to using 7-day financing tools. This will help the central bank better control the flow of funds and ensure that the bank's borrowing costs are more closely linked to the official interest rates. Although the RBI will use short-term tools from time to time to regulate system liquidity, after formal adoption of this proposal, banks will gain greater predictability in cash management in the era of digital banking. In addition, in the context of India facing the escalation of U.S. tariff threats, by improving the efficiency of policy transmission, this move is also aimed at enhancing the boost to economic growth this year's interest rate cut.

U.S. mortgage interest rates collectively dived

⑴ On August 6, Beijing time, the American Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the latest data, showing that interest rates of various types of mortgage loans in the United States generally fell this week, with a significant decline. ⑵ Specifically, the effective interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate loans fell to 6.94%, down 6 basis points from last week. ⑶The effective interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate loans also fell by 9 basis points to 6.19%. ⑷ It is worth noting that the effective interest rate of 5-year adjustable interest mortgages (ARMs) fell the most significantly, with a sharp drop of 16 basis points this week to 6.25%. ⑸ In addition, 30-year large loan (Jumbo)The interest rates of other loans such as FHA203 (b) have also decreased to varying degrees, down 9 basis points respectively. ⑹ Although interest rates have remained high overall in nearly a year, the general decline this week provides a respite for potential home buyers, which may stimulate a rebound in mortgage applications in the eouu.cning weeks.

Countdown to the tariff crisis! The Swiss president went to the United States urgently, and a game of high tariffs of 39% is about to showdown.

⑴ Reuters columnist George Hay wrote an article pointing out that Switzerland is facing severe challenges in an attempt to avoid the high tariffs of 39% announced by the Trump administration. ⑵It is reported that Swiss President Karin Keller-Sut and eouu.cnmerce Secretary Guy Palmerin flew to Washington on August 5 to seek a meeting with the US authorities in an effort to improve the status quo. ⑶ The Swiss government has stated that it is ready to provide the United States with a "more attractive plan" to avoid the tariffs that will eouu.cne into effect on August 7 and may seriously damage the Swiss economy. ⑷The article analyzes that since Switzerland has a huge trade surplus in high-value products such as pharmaceuticals, it is very difficult to solve the problem by reducing the surplus. ⑸ Therefore, Switzerland's best strategy may be to follow the example of the EU and Japan and strive for room for turning around by making vague eouu.cnmitments such as increasing investment in the United States. ⑹Swiss has made it clear that it will not take any countermeasures against the United States. This shows that Switzerland is trying to resolve the crisis in a moderate, cooperative way, but the end result is still full of uncertainty and the market is closely watching the progress of the talks.

Consumption confidence picks up! Eurozone retail sales rebounded unexpectedly, and interest rate cuts are expected to be eouu.cnpletely overturned

⑴ Peter Vanden Houtt, an economist at the Netherlands International Group (ING), pointed out in a report that retail sales in the euro zone rose by 0.3% month-on-month in June, reversing the 0.3% decline in May, a data indicating that consumer demand is recovering. ⑵ He believes that strong domestic demand is becoming increasingly important and may become the main support for economic growth in the second half of 2025, amid external adverse factors such as Trump's tariff rhetoric and a strengthening euro. ⑶ Thanks to the trade agreement reached between the EU and the United States and the good financial situation of consumers, the economist believes that the risk of negative growth in the second half of the year has basically dissipated. ⑷ This positive signal raises a key question: whether the ECB still needs to continue to cut interest rates significantly. ⑸ Vanden Hout only predicts that the ECB will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in the future. ⑹This means that if consumption data continues to improve, market expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts in the European Central Bank may be repriced, thus having a chain reaction to the euro exchange rate and bond yields.

The crude oil market has changed dramatically! Trump's remarks sparked panic, why did the Middle East benchmark oil prices rise against the trend?

⑴ On August 6, Beijing time, the Middle East crude oil benchmark spot premium rose, which is directly related to Trump's tariff remarks triggering market concerns about tightening Russian crude oil supply. ⑵Affected by this, spot premiums for Middle East benchmark crude oil such as Oman, Dubai and Murban have generally risen, showing strong demand for alternative supply in the market. ⑶ Data shows that the premium of spot Dubai crude oil rose by 13 cents to $2.67 per barrel, highlighting the tension in market sentiment. ⑷ At the same time, India's largest refiner, Indian Oil eouu.cnpany, has purchased 1 million barrels of Nigerian Agbami crude oil from eouu.cnmodity trader Tok for delivery in September, a move that also reflects that the market is actively looking for alternative sources of goods. ⑸ In Singapore's cash transactions, major Asian buyers including Sinopec and PetroChina made large transactions at prices ranging from US$70.20 to US$70.35 per barrel. ⑹In addition, the market is closely monitoring Saudi Arabia's upcoming official crude oil price for September, and its pricing will provide key guidance for the future direction of the crude oil market.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1608, an increase of 0.28%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (Euro-USD) price rose on the last trading day, breaking through the resistance level of 1.1575, while breaking away from the negative pressure of the EMA50, announcing a return to intraday levels under the leadership of small bull market fluctuations, and a positive signal from (RSI) appeared, despite reaching overbought levels.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3313, an increase of 0.10%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose above the last intraday trading, attacking the key resistance level of 1.3300, while the price tried to get rid of the negative pressure of the EMA50. After reaching the oversold level, in addition to the positive signal on the (RSI), it also supports the dominance of the bullish correction wave at the intraday level.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3364.90, a drop of 0.47%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell sharply on the last trading day as resistance levels stabilized at $3,375 and negative signals on (RSI) appeared in an attempt to obtain positive momentum that could help break through resistance. A strong bull market wave dominated in the short term, and positive support from trading above the EMA50 continued to exist, strengthening the stability of the positive scenario.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 37.758, a drop of 0.06%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the price of (silver) rose in the last session to eliminate its early resistanceThe loss of $37.85 due to the stable force level, attempting to gain positive momentum that could help it break through this resistance level, and attempting to unload some obvious overbought conditions on (RSI), with negative signals emerging, trading above the EMA50 in the short-term favor of breaking through bearish correction trendlines, creating positive support, enhancing the opportunity for recent price increases.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 66.010, an increase of 1.32%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices rose in the final intraday, as key support stabilized at $64.85, the emergence of positive signals on (RSI) provided positive impetus after reaching oversold levels. On the other hand, a small bearish wave dominated in the short term, and negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50 continues.

4. Institutional View

JPMorgan Chase: Lower Rivian's target price to $9 to maintain the "sell reduction" rating

⑴JPMorgan Chase lowered the target price of Rivian Automobile's Class A shares from $10 to $9 and maintained the "sell reduction" rating. The new target price implies a 26% downside eouu.cnpared to the latest price of the stock. ⑵Rivian's quarterly earnings on August 5 were lower than market expectations, but sales exceeded analyst expectations.

Barclays: Upgrade AMD's target price to $200 to maintain the "overweight" rating

⑴ Barclays analyst Tom? O'Malley raised the target price of CHANGES (AMD) from $130 to $200 and maintained an "overweight" rating. The new target price implies a 15% upside than the latest price of the stock. ⑵ AMD's quarterly earnings announced on August 5 were lower than expected, but sales exceeded market expectations.

The above content is all about "【XM Group】: The EU calls on the United States and Russia to restart the nuclear strategic dialogue, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 6" was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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