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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
2015最佳外汇交易平台
2015最佳金融交易平台
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
2016最佳本土客户服务
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
World Finance 2021颁发
FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
Global Forex Awards颁赠
FinTech Age Awards颁发
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
2015年最佳本地客户服务
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
2015最佳外汇交易平台
2015最佳金融交易平台
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
金融行业的佼佼者
认证最优金牌级别
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market news

A collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

1. Geopolitics and trade policy: tariff storms and turmoil are intertwined

Trump's tariff policy is upgraded

U.S. President Trump announced that he will significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods imported to the United States in the next 24 hours, with the current tax rate of 25%. This move directly impacts the market's confidence in the global trade chain. The US dollar may strengthen due to safe-haven demand in the short term, but risk appetite may be suppressed due to escalating trade frictions in the long term. In addition, Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on the EU and plans to increase drug tariffs to 250% within a week, further aggravating market concerns about the global economic outlook.

The EU suspends tariff countermeasures against the United States

The European eouu.cnmission announced that it would suspend the tariff countermeasures against the United States that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7, but retains the option of restart. This eouu.cnpromise measure temporarily alleviates trade tensions between Europe and the United States, but the market is still worried about the risk of subsequent negotiations breaking down, weak economic data in the euro zone and policy uncertainty, and the euro is under short-term pressure.

The situation in the Middle East deteriorates

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu plans to submit a plan to fully occupy the Gaza Strip on August 7. At present, the Israeli army has controlled 75% of the area in Gaza. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted risk aversion sentiment, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc may be supported, but at the same time may curb the demand for risk assets and indirectly affect eouu.cnmodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar.

2. Central Bank policy trends: game between differentiation path and expectations

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and Powell downplays expectations for interest rate cuts

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July 31 meeting, and Chairman Powell said the current interest rate level is sufficient to cope with inflation and trade uncertainty, downplaying the possibility of a rate cut in September. This statement strengthens expectations of a medium-term strengthening of the US dollar, with the upward pressure on US Treasury yields increasing, and non-US currencies are generally under pressure.

The Bank of Japan sends hawkish signals, but short-term interest rate hikes are expected to cool down

The minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting show that if economic growth and inflation meet expectations, further interest rate hikes may be raised in the future. However, President Kazuo Ueda emphasized at a press conference on July 31 that he had not lagged behind the inflation curve and said more data was needed to assess the impact of the tariffs, resulting in the yen giving up. The market expects the Bank of Japan to postpone interest rate hikes until October, and the short-term trend of the yen depends on changes in the interest rate spread between the United States and Japan.

Expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cuts have heated up

UK inflation rebounded to 3.4% in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.04%. The market expects the Bank of England to consider a rate cut at its August interest rate meeting. If interest rate cuts fall, the pound may be further under pressure. On the contrary, if the central bank maintains a hawkish stance, the pound may rebound.

3. Economic data release: game between key indicators and market expectations

U.S. ADP employment data (20:15)

As a forward-looking indicator of non-agricultural employment, the number of ADP employment in July is expected to be 148,000, while the previous value is 122,000. If the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which will be beneficial to the US dollar; on the contrary, if it is less than expected, it may trigger market concerns about the economic slowdown and suppress the US dollar.

Australia's weak trade data bears the Australian dollar

Australia's trade surplus narrowed sharply in May to A$2.24 billion, far lower than the expected A$5 billion, mainly due to a 5.5% drop in exports to the United States due to tariffs. This has exacerbated the market's selling pressure on Australian dollar assets. If the technical side falls below the key support of 0.64, a new round of decline may begin.

Eurozone inflation data stagnates

Eurozone's CPI year-on-year growth rate in August is expected to remain at 5.3%, and core inflation pressure remains. The European Central Bank faces a dilemma between "anti-inflation" and "stabilizing growth". If the data is higher than expected, it may postpone the expectation of interest rate cuts and support the euro; otherwise, if it is lower than expected, the euro may weaken further.

4. Market sentiment and technical aspects: risk preference and eouu.cnpetition for key points

Volatility in risk assets intensified

The three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board on July 31, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.14%, the S&P 500 falling 0.49%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.65%. The weakness in global stock markets reflects market concerns about the economic outlook, and risky currencies such as the pound and the Australian dollar may continue to be under pressure. At the same time, international oil prices fell for four consecutive times, with the main contract of US oil closing at US$65.17 per barrel, and the Canadian dollar was dragged down by energy prices and it was difficult to change its weakness in the short term.

Technical Analysis of Major Currency Pairs

Euro/USD: Short-term Resistance Level 1.0972. Support level 1.0936. If it falls below the 1.09 mark, it may fall below 1.0850.

GBP/USD: Resistance level 1.2761, support level 1.2707. The Bank of England policy expects to dominate short-term trends and we need to pay attention to the trends of the interest rate meeting in August.

U.S./JPY: Key resistance level 145.39, support level 144.97. The warming of geopolitical risk aversion may push the exchange rate test 146 mark.

Australia/USD: Technical oversold, but weak fundamentals may suppress the rebound space. Focus on the support level of 0.6427 in the short term.

5. eouu.cnmodities and cross currencies: linkage effect and arbitrage opportunities

The continuous downturn in crude oil prices dragged down eouu.cnmodity currencies

International oil prices fell four consecutive times, and the main contract of US oil fell below $65 per barrel. The currencies of energy exporters such as Canada and Australia (Canadian dollar, Australian dollar) are under pressure. The Canadian dollar-NYD exchange rate rose by 0.51% due to the decline in oil prices and the weak Canadian economic data, but we still need to pay attention to changes in supply and demand in the energy market in the long run.

The demand for gold safe-haven weakened marginally

eouu.cnEX gold futures rose slightly by 0.25% to $3,435 per ounce on July 31, which was supported by geopolitical risks in the short term, but the Federal Reserve maintained high interest rate expectations to limit the gains. If the US dollar strengthens further, gold may fall to the key support of $3,400.

6. Operation strategy suggestions

USD: Pay attention to ADP data and tariff policies, and go long on short-term dips in the USD index, target 99.35, stop loss 98.13.

Euro: Before the data is released, wait and see. If the CPI exceeds expectations, you can go long with a light position, target 1.10 and stop loss 1.0899.

JPY: With the increasing geopolitical risk, the US dollar/JPY can place long positions on lows, with a target of 145.80 and a stop loss of 144.56.

Australia: rebounded to short around 0.6523, targeted at 0.6427, stop loss of 0.6550.

GBP: Be cautious before the Bank of England policy is announced. If the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up, you can short GBP/USD, target 1.2650, stop loss 1.2816.

Risk warning: Geopolitical situation, central bank policy changes and economic data fluctuations beyond expectations may cause severe market fluctuations. It is recommended to strictly control positions and set reasonable stop loss.

The above content is all about "【XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis】: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influence the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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CATEGORIES

News

market news

A collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market

1. Geopolitics and trade policy: tariff storms and turmoil are intertwined

Trump's tariff policy is upgraded

The EU suspends tariff countermeasures against the United States

The situation in the Middle East deteriorates

2. Central Bank policy trends: game between differentiation path and expectations

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and Powell downplays expectations for interest rate cuts

The Bank of Japan sends hawkish signals, but short-term interest rate hikes are expected to cool down

Expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cuts have heated up

3. Economic data release: game between key indicators and market expectations

U.S. ADP employment data (20:15)

Australia's weak trade data bears the Australian dollar

Eurozone inflation data stagnates

4. Market sentiment and technical aspects: risk preference and eouu.cnpetition for key points

Volatility in risk assets intensified

Technical Analysis of Major Currency Pairs

5. eouu.cnmodities and cross currencies: linkage effect and arbitrage opportunities

The continuous downturn in crude oil prices dragged down eouu.cnmodity currencies

The demand for gold safe-haven weakened marginally

6. Operation strategy suggestions

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

A collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market

1. Geopolitics and trade policy: tariff storms and turmoil are intertwined

Trump's tariff policy is upgraded

The EU suspends tariff countermeasures against the United States

The situation in the Middle East deteriorates

2. Central Bank policy trends: game between differentiation path and expectations

The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and Powell downplays expectations for interest rate cuts

The Bank of Japan sends hawkish signals, but short-term interest rate hikes are expected to cool down

Expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cuts have heated up

3. Economic data release: game between key indicators and market expectations

U.S. ADP employment data (20:15)

Australia's weak trade data bears the Australian dollar

Eurozone inflation data stagnates

4. Market sentiment and technical aspects: risk preference and eouu.cnpetition for key points

Volatility in risk assets intensified

Technical Analysis of Major Currency Pairs

5. eouu.cnmodities and cross currencies: linkage effect and arbitrage opportunities

The continuous downturn in crude oil prices dragged down eouu.cnmodity currencies

The demand for gold safe-haven weakened marginally

6. Operation strategy suggestions

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason