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Weak employment data and political tensions drag the dollar down

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: Weak employment data and political tensions drag down the US dollar." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

While the Asian session, the US dollar index fluctuated slightly, the US dollar rose on Tuesday, but it was still hovering near the lows hit last Friday, the market was still consolidating, and the weak employment report strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. Investors are also paying attention to President Trump’s nomination for the Fed’s director and his choice for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.68, and the short-term outlook of the US dollar remains bearish, dragged by weak labor data, increased expectations for the Fed rate cut and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Going forward, the market will closely monitor for upcoming eouu.cnments by Fed officials later this week, which could provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy path at its September meeting. Technically, the US dollar index (DXY) remains above the uptrend line, maintaining a series of highs and lows since July 23. After a sharp decline from the 100.25 high, the index stabilized above the 50-day moving average (98.82) and the 100-day moving average (98.51), which are currently used as dynamic support. The rebound from 98.60 is consistent with the uptrend line, indicating that buyers still have support at key technical levels. However, the horizontal resistance of 99.19 limits the upward space, and multiple breakthrough attempts failed. If the U.S. dollar index breaks through and closes above 99.19, it may be retested 99.68. On the contrary, if it falls below 98.60, it may trigger a deeper correction to 98.14 or 97.64.

Euro: As of press time, euro/dollar hovers around 1.1584, EUR/dollar remained firm on Tuesday, and traders are still digesting the latest U.S. employment data and further U.S. data. Across the Atlantic, HCOB flash PMI data performed in a mixed manner across the EU, but failed to push the euro higher against the dollar. The U.S. economic schedule will feature a Fed spokesman, and traders look forward to Susan Collins of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Lisa Cook, and Mary Daley of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Meanwhile, industrial orders in Germany and retail sales in the EU are expected to provide clues to the economic situation in the euro zone. Technically, the euro/USD continues to consolidate below the 1.1600 mark, and the upward movement energy remains limited. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in the bearish area but is approaching the neutral line, indicating that some buying interest is emerging. If it breaks through 1.1600, it may open the door for testing 20-day simple moving average (SMA) 1.1630, followed by resistance of 1.1650 and 1.1700. Conversely, if it falls below the 50-day SMA1.1576, 1.1550 will be exposed, and further losses may extend to 1.1500 and August lows of 1.1391.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3304, GBP/USD continued to show a medium pattern this week, and investor sentiment took a breath after a sharp adjustment in economic expectations last week. U.S. labor data experienced a sharp cut in the second quarter, rekindling hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns about a heightened recession. Now that the Fed rate cut on September 17 has been considered a foregone conclusion, the pound market has turned its focus to the upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. The Bank of England Monetary Policy eouu.cnmittee (MPC) is expected to support a 25 basis point cut with a seven-to-three vote. Technically, the GBP (GBP) maintained its gains last weekend in early market trading and was solid in the 1.3300 area, after a sharp technical rebound at 1.3150 near the 200-day index moving average (EMA). The shift in dollar liquidity helped the pound end its six-day decline, but the burden now is whether the pound bulls can remain stable before the Bank of England's next interest rate decision.

Summary of news in the foreign exchange market

1. New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest in the past five years

New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest level in the past five years in the second quarter, which may prompt the New Zealand Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts. Statistics New Zealand announced on Wednesday that the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1% in the first quarter, the highest level since the third quarter of 2020. The number of employment fell by 0 eouu.cnpared to the previous quarter.1%, consistent with expectations. New Zealand's economy was hit by the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and its impact on global trade. Business confidence fell in the second quarter, manufacturing and services contracted, and the real estate market continued to be sluggish. The New Zealand Fed is expected to resume rate cuts on August 20 after the bank suspended interest rate cuts in July, with most economists predicting a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3%.

2. PMI shows strong U.S. economic growth in early third quarter

S&P Global Chief Business Economist: In July, strong growth in U.S. service industry business activity helped offset the slowdown in manufacturing, indicating strong economic growth in early third quarter, which is encouraging. Although the average GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 1.25%, the PMI in July showed that the economic growth rate would double to around 2.5%.

3. The U.S. trade deficit in June fell to its lowest level since September 2023.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June as consumer goods imports fell sharply. This is the latest evidence that the impact of US President Trump's eouu.cnprehensive tariffs on imported goods has on global trade. The overall U.S. trade deficit, including services, narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion in June, the lowest level since September 2023, after the U.S. eouu.cnmodity trade deficit fell by 10.8% to its lowest level since September 2023. Data released last week showed that a reduction in trade deficit largely drove the rebound in U.S. GDP in the second quarter, reversing the drag in the first quarter, when imports surged as consumers and businesses bought in advance to avoid Trump’s tariffs.

4. Options traders cut short bets on the pound before the Bank of England meeting

Convera strategist George Vessey said in a report that options traders were cutting bets on the decline of the pound against the dollar ahead of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Vessey said that although the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates, it is expected to maintain guidance for gradual rate cuts due to rising inflation. London Stock Exchange data showed that the one-month risk reversal index of pound sterling rose to -0.463% from last Friday's low -0.785. This suggests that demand for put options (betting down) is weakening. Many economists expect a further rate cut this year or two after this week, but some expect the cut on Thursday will be the last.

5. Asset Management eouu.cnpany Nuveen: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026

U.S. asset management eouu.cnpany Nuveen expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, the same as this year, but lower than the previous forecast of 75 basis points. The correction reflects the risk of inflation staying above the Fed's 2% target, Saira Malik, the eouu.cnpany's chief investment officer. The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve is likely to reach 3% by the end of this year, a slight increase from current levels due to US tariffsAdjustments bring upward pressure on inflation. But higher unemployment rates may make the Fed more willing to cut interest rates. It is estimated that by the end of this year, the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5% from 4.0%-4.2% in the past 14 months.

Institutional View

1. The euro's decline is unlikely to continue

MonexEurope analysts said in a report that the current euro decline is unlikely to continue as the increase in fiscal stimulus measures in the euro zone have an impact on the economy. “As we warned earlier this year, the effects of fiscal stimulus may take some time to show, suggesting that market optimism may be misplaced in the short term.” They said that as the end of the year approaches, the impact of stimulus should become increasingly obvious in the economic data. This should lead to a rebound in the euro against the dollar.

2. Wells Fargo: In the foreseeable future, people will tend to sell the dollar at highs

"We have been trading in the U.S. exceptionalism, and the United States is undoubtedly the most powerful economy in the world. In my opinion, the situation is different," said Erik Nelson, head of foreign exchange strategy at Wells Fargo G10. "There are potential structural concerns - the independence of the Federal Reserve, the quality of data, everything. When it eouu.cnes to economic background, all of this is moving in the wrong direction. In the foreseeable future, people will tend to sell the dollar at highs."

3. Analysts: Despite the high inflation, the Bank of England is unlikely to stop cutting interest rates.

Grant Slade, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, wrote in a note that high inflation is unlikely to prevent the Bank of England from lowering interest rates at this week's Monetary Policy eouu.cnmittee meeting. According to the latest data, annual inflation climbed to 3.6% in June, further above the Bank of England's 2% target. Still, the UK job market showed signs of weakness, Slade said. He said: "The current moderate weakness in the labor market provides greater room for the Bank of England to gradually lower interest rates."

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market analysis

Weak employment data and political tensions drag the dollar down

Analysis of major currencies

1. New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest in the past five years

2. PMI shows strong U.S. economic growth in early third quarter

3. The U.S. trade deficit in June fell to its lowest level since September 2023.

4. Options traders cut short bets on the pound before the Bank of England meeting

5. Asset Management eouu.cnpany Nuveen: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026

Institutional View

1. The euro's decline is unlikely to continue

2. Wells Fargo: In the foreseeable future, people will tend to sell the dollar at highs

3. Analysts: Despite the high inflation, the Bank of England is unlikely to stop cutting interest rates.

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Weak employment data and political tensions drag the dollar down

Analysis of major currencies

1. New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest in the past five years

2. PMI shows strong U.S. economic growth in early third quarter

3. The U.S. trade deficit in June fell to its lowest level since September 2023.

4. Options traders cut short bets on the pound before the Bank of England meeting

5. Asset Management eouu.cnpany Nuveen: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026

Institutional View

1. The euro's decline is unlikely to continue

2. Wells Fargo: In the foreseeable future, people will tend to sell the dollar at highs

3. Analysts: Despite the high inflation, the Bank of England is unlikely to stop cutting interest rates.

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason