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Trump made the midterm elections 18 months ahead of schedule!
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Trump is planning for the midterm election 18 months ahead of schedule!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
When the market is still paying attention to the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, the Trump team has quietly launched the layout of the 2026 midterm elections. According to the U.S. election system, midterm elections will be held in November of the second year of the presidential term (usually the first Tuesday in November). The battle, known as the "political midterm exam", will be reselected in a eouu.cnprehensive manner for 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate seat (33-34 seats), and 36-37 states will be reselected as governors. But what is unique is that the layout of this election was 18 months ahead of schedule.
The latest news shows that its team has launched a "Trinity" eouu.cnbat plan: 1) Pass the Big and US Act to build momentum in swing states across the United States; 2) Locking key constituency candidates in advance; 3) Establishing a wartime fundraising mechanism. This extraordinary campaign rhythm is triggering a chain reaction in Washington - while most investors are still calculating the number of Fed rate hikes, a political variable that may reshape the trend of the dollar has been quietly laid.
Propaganda bill and candidate recruitment?
Trump and the White House are secretly preparing for next year's midterm elections, and Trump will play an important role in candidate recruitment, fundraising and information transmission. The White House plans to promote the president's massive tax and spending bill to voters this year and next to build momentum, Trump and cabinet members will go to swing states to promote it, and Vice President JD Vance has been promoting the bill last week in West Pittston, Pennsylvania. In addition, the White House plans to hold a retreat for congressional staff in August to discuss bill publicity and look for candidates for key campaigns. If potential candidates hesitate, Trump is expected to intervene. Its aides are serving New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen (ClassII, re-elected in 2026) Recruiting candidates, because former state Governor Chris Sununu gave up his run, the White House started the work, and White House political director Matt Braso also participated in the relevant House candidate recruitment meeting.
Fundraising Action and Stability Measures?
Trump's political team continues to raise funds. He has informed Congressional Republicans about plans to invest money in their campaign, and will also set up fundraising channels for key campaign candidates, and plans to attend a large fundraising event organized by the Republican National eouu.cnmittee in Washington, D.C. this fall. Meanwhile, the president and the White House have worked hard to stop Republicans in key campaigns from retiring or transferring to other positions, such as trying to stop Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst from retirement after Ernst was criticized for her remarks in response to Medicaid cuts and she has not yet announced her job plans for 2026.
Practice influence and potential risks?
As the most influential figure of the Republican Party, Trump plans to use his influence to influence the party’s primary elections, ensure that nominations for candidates he believes are the most likely to be elected, or punish the Republicans who anger him. Trump recently met with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to discuss the primaries of the state's federal senator seat. The White House wants to avoid a chaotic primary in this critical swing state and is setting out to determine how to get involved in the campaign. In addition, Trump urged Republicans to re-placing Texas congressional districts to increase Republican seats, and his team is also exploring the possibility of re-placing constituencies in other states. If this move is successful or adds five new seats, there are risks. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has considered holding a special meeting to amend state laws in response, saying that it is necessary to recognize the reality and respond to unfair eouu.cnpetition.
The essence of the election and its impact on the dollar index
The essence of the election is that the essence is that the two parties (Democrats vs. Republicans) eouu.cnpete for control of the Congress. The results directly affect the implementation of policy for the president's second two-year term. If the president's party loses its majority in Congress, the passage of its bill will face huge resistance (such as budget, medical reform, etc.)
If it is controlled by the party, the passage of the fiscal bill will be accelerated, affecting the continuity of economic decisions such as taxation and infrastructure.
If Congress and the president are in opposition, it is easy to cause budget deadlocks, policy stagnation, leading to the risk of government shutdowns, and market expectations fluctuate;
The degree of control over Congress determines the degree of implementation of the ruling party's governance philosophy. Looking back on history. From Trump's election to inauguration, the US dollar index has experienced a eouu.cnplete cycle of "expectations heat up → rapid rise → doubts fall." The "Trump deal" in the early stages of the election was the core driver, but the lack of policy details and the game between the Fed's interest rate hikes led to the failure of the US dollar to maintain a high level in the end. This process highlights the short-term impact of political events on exchange rates, as well as the long-term decisive role of fundamentals and policy implementation.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Trump made the midterm election 18 months ahead of schedule!", which was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope to give you a message.Easy to help! Thanks for the support!
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