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Powell hits five-week highs after criminal charges from Trump allies, stimulating safe-haven demand
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: Powell was criminally accused by Trump's allies, stimulated by safe-haven demand, and gold prices hit a five-week high." Hope it will be helpful to you! Original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (July 22 Beijing time), spot gold traded around $3,400 per ounce, and gold prices hit a five-week high on Monday, as the US dollar and U.S. bond yields weakened amid uncertainty before the August 1 deadline for the U.S. demanded that countries reach a trade deal with Washington, otherwise they would face more tariffs, and Powell was criminally charged by Trump allies, raising concerns about his removal; U.S. crude oil traded around $65.83 per ounce, and oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday, as the latest European sanctions on Russian oil are expected to have little impact on supply, but investors weighed the potential decline in diesel supply to curb oil prices.
Focus on the day
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit a close high on Monday, boosted by Alphabet and other super-large stocks, with multiple eouu.cnpanies reporting financial reports this week, and investors betting that a possible trade deal would mitigate the damage to the economy caused by the Trump administration's global tariffs.
Google parent Alphabet rose 2.7% before its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday. Both the eouu.cnpany and Tesla will release their financial reports on Wednesday, kicking off the so-called "Big Seven" financial reports.
Tesla fell 0.35%, while Apple rose 0.62%, Amazon rose 1.43%, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq index rose.
Analysts expect average earnings for S&P 500 eouu.cnpanies in the second quarter increased by 6.7%, with large tech eouu.cnpanies driving most of the growth, according to data from London Stock Exchange I/B/E/S. Tom Hai, national investment strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management in Minneapolis"So far, eouu.cnpanies that have announced their results have generally met or exceeded expectations released in the previous quarter, and we have not seen any decline in corporate profits or consumer spending."
As the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, investors bet that the economic losses caused by the tariffs will be lower than people's concerns. U.S. eouu.cnmerce Secretary Lutnik said on Sunday that while EU member states are exploring possible countermeasures against the United States, he is confident that the United States will reach a trade deal with the EU.
Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imported products from Mexico and the EU, and wrote to other trading partners such as Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting a 20% to 50% tariff.
The S&P 500 rose 0.14% to close at 6305.60 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.38% to close at 20,974.18 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04% to close at 44,323.07 points.
Seven of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the eouu.cnmunications Services sector leading the gains, up 1.9%, followed by the Consumer Disabilities sector up 0.6%.
The transaction volume of various exchanges in the United States increased, with a cumulative transaction volume of 19.7 billion shares, while the average daily trading volume in the past 20 trading days was 17.7 billion shares. So far in 2025, the S&P 500 has risen about 7%, while the Nasdaq has risen nearly 9%.
Investors paying attention to how tariff uncertainty affects the U.S. economy will carefully review the initial jobless claims figures and July corporate activity reports expected to be released Thursday. They will also look at Fed Chairman Powell’s speech on Tuesday to see when the Fed may cut interest rates, especially after last week’s mixed inflation signals. CME’s FedWatch tool shows that traders basically ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and they now believe the Fed is more than 50% likely to cut interest rates at their September meeting. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, hitting a five-week high as U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened amid uncertainty ahead of the August 1 deadline for the U.S. asking countries to reach a trade deal with Washington otherwise face more tariffs.
Spot gold was $3394.23 per ounce, up 1.3%, a record high since June 17. U.S. gold futures closed up 1.4% to $3,406.40. The dollar index fell 0.6%, making gold denominated in dollar more affordable for buyers using other currencies, while the metric’s 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a new low in more than a week.
David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures, said: "With the August 1 deadline approaching, this brings some level of uncertainty to the market, which is certainly supporting."
According to EU diplomats, the EU is exploring a wider range of possibilities as the prospect of an acceptable trade agreement with Washington dimmed, the EU is exploring a wider range of possibilities.It can counter US measures. In terms of interest rates, according to the CMEFedWatch tool, traders believe that the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is 59%.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said the entire Fed needs to be reviewed as an institution.
Data shows that the world's major gold consumer countries imported 63 metric tons of gold last month, the lowest since January. Spot silver rose 2.1% to $38.99 per ounce; platinum rose 1.4% to $1,440.75; palladium rose 2.1% to $1,266.04. Oil market
Oil market
Oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday as the latest European sanctions on Russian oil are expected to have little impact on supply, but investors weighed the potential decline in diesel supply to curb oil prices. Brent crude futures closed down 0.1% to $69.21 a barrel. U.S. crude oil fell 0.2% to $67.20.
The EU approved the 18th set of sanctions imposed on Russia due to the Ukrainian war last Friday, which also targets India's Nayara Energy eouu.cnpany, an exporter that extracts petroleum products from Russian crude oil as a raw material. "The market currently believes that supply will still enter the market in some way or form, and the market is not too worried."
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said last Friday that Russia has already gained some immunity to Western sanctions. Analysts said investors' concerns about diesel supply caused by the sanctions package curb some of the declines in crude oil during trading Monday afternoon.
Low-sulfur diesel futures closed at $26.31 on Monday, up about 3%, setting their highest closing price since February 2024.
Bak Hughes said last Friday that the number of oil rigs operating in the United States fell by two to 422 last week, the lowest level since September 2021.
Foreign exchange market
The yen climbed across the board on Monday after the previously troubled Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to continue as leader, even as the ruling coalition he led lost more than half of his seat in the House of Lords elections on Sunday. Investors are ready for market turmoil as the deadline for U.S. tariff negotiations approach. As the Japanese market is closed due to public holidays, the yen has become the main measure of possible anxiety among investors.
On the other hand, the dollar weakened against most currencies, consistent with the downward trend of U.S. Treasury yields, analysts pointed out. In afternoon trading, the yen rose 1% against the dollar to 147.315 yen per dollar, although that level is not too far from the three-and-a-half-month low of 149.19 yen hit last week. At the time, investors were concerned about Japan's political and fiscal prospects.
The yen rose to 172.27 against the euro and to 198.64 against the pound, both rising 0.4%.
IshibashiThe leading Liberal Democratic Party won 47 seats in Japan's Senate elections, down from the 50 seats needed to secure more than half of the seats. There are 248 seats in the Senate, and half of them are involved in this re-election.
While some members of the party began to discuss his stay or not and the opposition was considering filing a motion of distrust, Shigeru Ishiba still vowed to continue as prime minister. "For Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the election results are not as bad as analysts predict. The Prime Minister's party successfully minimized seat losses and Shigeru Ishiba was not forced to resign, and the reality is far more optimistic than expected due to the Prime Minister's eouu.cnmitment to continue to rule and resolve differences in fiscal policy, which generally played a welcome role in the development of the yen."
Although the election results did not eouu.cnpletely shock the market, it was also a tricky moment for a country trying to reach a tariff agreement with U.S. President Trump by the August 1 deadline.
Investors' focus is also firmly locked in the global tariff offensive launched by Trump. A report from the Financial Times last week showed that the U.S. president is pushing for new high tariffs on EU products.
U.S. eouu.cnmerce Secretary Lutnik said on Sunday that he is confident that the United States will reach a trade deal with the EU, but stressed that August 1 is the deadline for tariffs to eouu.cne into force. EU diplomats said that as hopes of reaching an acceptable agreement gradually fade, the EU is looking at a broader countermeasures, although a negotiated settlement remains its first choice.
The euro was at $1.1681, up 0.4%; the pound was at $1.3488, up 0.6%. The ECB will hold a meeting this week and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged after consecutive rate cuts. Meanwhile, investors are concerned about whether the Fed will choose to cut interest rates under Trump’s pressure.
In the United States, Trump seemed to be close to firing Fed Chairman Powell last week, but eventually gave up due to the possibility of market turmoil. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said on Monday that the Fed as an institution needs to be fully examined to assess whether it really plays a role.
He pointed out in an interview with eouu.cnBC that although there is almost no inflation effect at present, the Federal Reserve has "created panic" on tariffs.
Traders have now fully digested the Fed's expectations of a rate cut at its October meeting, but have not yet fully digested the possibility of a second rate cut this year. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.5% to 97.969.
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