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market analysis
After the big reshuffle, gold will break through
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: After the big reshuffle, gold will break through." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
1. Dynamic interpretation of news
1. Differentiation of Fed policy expectations and interest rate cuts
Federal Director Waller once again called for a rate cut in July in the early morning of the 18th, emphasizing that "inflation brought by tariffs is temporary", and pointed out that private sector employment growth is close to "stall".
Wash, a popular candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman, expressed support for interest rate cuts on the same day, criticizing Powell for "overestimating the impact of tariffs on inflation" and believing that "independence and interest rate cuts do not conflict." Although CME data shows that the probability of interest rate cuts in July is only 2.6%, officials have intensively expressed their views to intensify market expectations for policy shifts, and the US dollar index is under small pressure, providing support for gold.
Market uncertainty under policy differences: There are obvious differences within the Fed on the path to cut interest rates. Director Coogler and New York Fed Chairman Williams still stressed the need to be vigilant against inflation risks caused by tariffs. This difference has led to an increase in gold's short-term volatility.
2. Geopolitical risks continue to ferment
The situation in the Middle East escalates: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the implementation of demilitarization measures in southern Damascus, Syria and dispatched fighter jets to the area. Russia-Iran strategic cooperation deepens, Putin visits Iran to sign a US$40 billion investment agreement, planning to settle bilateral trade in local currency, further intensifying the game between the United States and Russia in the Middle East.
Impact of the termination of the Black Sea Food Agreement: Russia officially terminates the Black Sea Food Agreement, coupled with the United States' additional military force to the Middle East, geopolitical risk premium continues to boost demand for gold safe-haven.
3. Trump's tariff policy and trade friction concerns
EU's counterattack plan has exacerbated uncertainty: The EU announced plans to add new tariffs on US services and implement export controls in response to Trump's plan to impose high amounts on imported carsTariff plan. The market is vigilant about the tariff policy that will take effect on August 1, and concerns about escalating trade frictions may further boost gold's risk aversion attributes.
2. Technical indicator tendency
1. Daily level: The triangular convergence ends, and a breakthrough is imminent. Gold's triangle convergence pattern has entered its final stage since US$3,500. The 5-day 10-day moving average golden cross is still valid. The 30-day moving average (US$3,344) has been broken. The MACD red column shortened to near the zero axis, and the RSI is close to the 50 neutral line, indicating the balance of long and short forces.
2. Four-hour level: oscillation continues, seeking direction to break
The price fluctuates repeatedly in the range of US$3282-3377. It is currently below the middle track, and the short-term moving average short-term positioning is arranged. If it can rebound and stabilize the resistance of US$3357 (area) under the catalysis of fundamental events, it may open a correction market. The Bollinger band will remain closed as a whole, the MACD green column narrows, and the RSI is close to the 30-oversold area. There is a short-term rebound demand, but the demand can be driven.
The short-term support is $3330 below, further supporting $3319, the primary and key resistance above is $3357, break through and stand firm, and at least $3400 in stages!
In recent days, gold prices have continued to fluctuate. Every decline eouu.cnes with a strong rebound. Faced with this trend, first of all, we need to clarify the direction, and secondly, it is nothing more than the point. If it is a short-term operation, the profit will be put into the pocket when the rebound rises. If it is a medium-term thinking, just wait patiently.
3. Data and risk warnings
1. Pay attention to the new home start, construction permit and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released at 20:30 in the United States. If the data exceeds expectations, it may suppress the decline of gold prices. If geopolitical risks escalate or the data is weak, it may form a positive support for gold prices.
2. In terms of geopolitical events, we need to pay attention to the progress of Russia-Iran cooperation, the situation in the Black Sea and the trend of Trump's tariff policy may cause market risk aversion to fluctuations, and we need to track it in real time.
3. Technical breakdown: After the triangle pattern breaks through, it may be accompanied by rapid fluctuations, and strict control of positions and stop losses is required. It is recommended that the holding of a single product should not exceed 10%-15% of the total funds.
4. Summary
Today's gold market presents a dual game between news and technical aspects: on the news, the Fed expects dovishly, and beware of another change in the topic of future candidates for the Fed Chairman; on the technical aspect, the triangle convergence pattern is about to break through, and direction selection requires guidance from evening data. The current price is at the critical point of long-short equilibrium. You need to be patient when entering the market, especially in the fluctuation stage. Do not avoid chasing the rise and selling the fall.
(The above sharing is purely personal opinion and does not constitute practical operation suggestions. Financial management is risky, and you must bear the profit and loss at your own risk)
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: After a major reshuffle, gold will break through". It was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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