Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--AUD/USD Forecast: Stabilizes Amid Mixed Signals
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/CHF Forecast: Holds Above 0.9450, Eyes Upside Potent
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--Silver Forecast: Can Silver Overcome $31?
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/CHF Forecast: US Dollar Races Higher Against Swiss F
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--AUD/USD Forex Signal: Aussie Dollar Slumps Ahead of FOMC
market analysis
The dollar is backed by economic resilience, and the yen faces a final battle in the weekend elections may trigger a risk of triple kills
Wonderful introduction:
Spring flowers will bloom! If you have ever experienced winter, then you will have spring! If you have dreams, then spring will definitely not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have flowers blooming in the garden.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The US dollar is supported by economic resilience, and the yen is facing the final battle of the weekend elections, which may trigger the risk of triple killing." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Asian market market
On Thursday, as tensions surrounding Powell's sack slumped, and the US economic data was strong, the US dollar index rose. As of now, the US dollar price is 98.50.
1. Tariffs
① Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of eouu.cnmerce: Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of American goods.
②The EU plans to add new service tariffs and export controls to the United States as a means of retaliation after the breakdown of trade negotiations.
③White House Trade Advisor Navarro: EU VAT is also a subsidy. We hope to see VAT reductions and tariff reductions.
④ The South Korean Foreign Minister’s nominee said he was confident of reaching an agreement before the U.S. tariffs took effect.
2. Fed
① Kugler: It is appropriate to keep interest rate policy stable for a period of time.
②Daly: The rate cut in July or September is not the most critical.
③Bostic: It may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term.
④Powell responded to the renovation of the building: no roof garden, no private elevator, and no marble.
⑤ Waller: The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting.
⑥Trump posted again to call on the Fed to cut interest rates.
3. Federal Housing Finance Agency Supervisor: Members of Congress will accuse Powell of alleged perjury.
4. United StatesThe monthly retail sales rate in June was 0.6%, the highest since March this year, higher than market expectations of 0.1%.
5. European E3 stressed that if the Iran nuclear agreement does not make substantial progress by the end of the summer, UN sanctions will be imposed on Iran again.
Summary of institutional views
eouu.cnprehensive market evaluation: The Federal Reserve faces greater pressure from the White House, and market volatility is intensifying
Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets, said that with the turmoil of the Federal Reserve, the overall uncertainty of the financial market has been aggravated, and I am optimistic about the trend of gold. Increasing market volatility will be the most likely situation if political tensions escalate further and the Fed faces greater pressure from the White House. Given gold's consistent hedging attributes during political and economic turmoil, its demand as a means of value storage is likely to increase significantly.
Analyst Jim Wyckoff said gold prices are expected to rise if Trump fulfills the threat of initially firing Powell. Trump’s sack of Powell would surprise the market and push for safe-haven demand for gold, which in turn could put pressure on the dollar index – at least initially.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Ruixun Bank: Once this reputation collapses, interest rate cuts will hit the dollar and U.S. bonds
The attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve may have serious consequences. Not only will it lead to a plunge in the US dollar and U.S. bonds, the Fed will also lose a super power—the key ability to support turbulent financial markets by buying billions of dollars in U.S. debt. What is unique about the United States and the minority privileged economic zones is that their government bonds are supported by central bank bond purchases. This is entirely due to credibility. If this credibility is lost, the Fed will lose its most important policy tool. Quantitative easing and Fed balance sheet expansion have worked for decades based on its unrivaled credibility. Once this reputation collapses, interest rate cuts will hit the dollar and U.S. bonds hard. Investors are advised to pay close attention to safe-haven assets, and the Federal Reserve may have major policy actions this fall.
Mitsubishi UF: The three cornerstones for enhancing the euro's global status
Currently, the euro is the world's second largest reserve currency, accounting for about 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, while the US dollar accounts for 58%. Enhancement of the euro's international status will have a positive impact on the eurozone:
1. Reduce lending costs: EU governments and businesses will be able to borrow at a lower cost.
2. Avoid exchange rate risks: As more trade is denominated in the euro, the euro zone will be more immune to exchange rate fluctuations.
3. Resist external pressure: Enhancing the international status of the euro will protect Europe from the impact of sanctions or other coercive measures.
To achieve the improvement of the euro's global status, historical experience must be firmly based on the following three cornerstones, each of which is crucial to success:
1. A solid and credible geopolitical foundation:We must remain firm in our eouu.cnmitment to open trade and support it with strong security capabilities.
2. Strengthened economic foundation: The liquidity of the capital market must be deepened and improved, making Europe the preferred destination for global capital.
3. Stable legal foundation: The rule of law must be defended to consolidate our legal foundation.
RBC: Inflation and employment data have not met standards, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will be postponed until December
The Federal Reserve is still in a "waiting and watching" mode. To get rid of this mentality, more evidence may be needed to confirm: 1. Tariff-related inflation has reached its peak. 2. Inflation has not spread to other categories. 3. The labor market has slowed further.
The data in the eouu.cning months is unlikely to fully confirm all of these conditions, so we postpone our first 25 basis point cut to December (previously September). Around this point, risks tend to start rate cuts later—that is, the Federal Open Market eouu.cnmittee (FOMC) may remain on the wait-and-see until 2026.
After the December rate cut, we still expect the Fed to adopt a gradual adjustment strategy (25 basis points cut per meeting) and return to the mid- and long-term median point of 3.00% by July 2026. In other words, we believe that the next phase of the rate cut cycle is a recovery of interest rates "normalization" rather than an emergency entry into the easing zone.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The US dollar is supported by economic resilience, and the yen is facing the final battle of the weekend elections, which may trigger the risk of triple killing". It is carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues:
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here