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Powell uncertainty and retail sales data intensify volatility, dollar index rebounds

Wonderful Introduction:

Love sometimes does not require the promise of vows, but she must need meticulous care and greetings; sometimes she does not need the tragic spirit of Liang Zhu turning into a butterfly, but she must need the tacit understanding and eouu.cnpanionship with each other; sometimes she does not need the follower of male and female followers, but she must need the support and understanding of each other.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: Powell's uncertainty and retail sales data intensify fluctuations, and the US dollar index rebounds." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated, and the US dollar rose this month, analysts said this was mainly a consolidation after a sharp decline most of the year. However, the U.S. dollar index is still down 9% so far this year. U.S. Treasury yields rose this month, supporting the dollar's rebound. This trading day requires attention to the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the U.S. real estate market data, pay attention to the meeting of Treasury Secretary and Central Bank Governors hosted by South Africa, and pay attention to news related to the international trade situation.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 98.48, the US dollar rose due to strong labor and retail data. Trump denied rumors of Powell's fire, alleviating market tensions. The US dollar index (DXY) briefly broke through the 50-day moving average of 98.700 for the first time since February, hitting a high of 98.950. Trump's remarks rekindled market doubts about the stability of Fed Chairman Powell's position and policy direction, limiting the dollar's gains. U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations; the number of initial jobless claims fell 7,000, supporting the strong outlook for the dollar.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1621, and the euro was under pressure as the ECB's inflation was close to its target, while the US CPI was strong. Technically, the euro/dollar tends to be neutral, and traders fail to make a decisionBreak through above 1.1600 or below 1.1550. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are accumulating momentum. That is, if the EUR/USD falls below 1.1550, the next support will be 1.1500, followed by the 50-day simple moving average of 1.1490 and the 100-day simple moving average of 1.1266. Conversely, breaking through the 20-day simple moving average of 1.1681 will clear the path to challenge 1.1700, followed by the daily high of 1.1749 on July 20, followed by 1.1800 and a record 1.1829.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.3431. GBP/USD fluctuated around the 1.3400 area on Thursday. After a brief period of ease of selling pressure, it faced new fluctuations again. The overall UK labor data failed to meet expectations, while the US retail sales data were stronger than expected. On Friday, UK data remained blank on the agenda, while the U.S. market still had to deal with the University of Michigan (UoM) July consumer confidence index data. Technically, the mid-week rebound of GBP/USD cut off the recent unilateral downward trend after the GBP/USD fell sharply from multi-year highs in early July. The GBP/USD appears to confirm a technical rebound from the 1.3400 mark, but only if buying pressure can maintain momentum.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. The Second China-Europe High-Level Policy Dialogue on Circular Economy was successfully held

The National Development and Reform eouu.cnmission reported that on July 14, 2025, the Second China-Europe High-Level Policy Dialogue on Circular Economy was successfully held in Beijing. Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform eouu.cnmission of China, and Jesica Roswal, the EU's environmental, water resilience and eouu.cnpetitive circular economy eouu.cnmittee member, co-chaired the dialogue. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on the latest progress in the China-Europe circular economy and issues such as sustainable product ecological design, the use of recycled materials, and plastic recycling. In the future, under the framework of the memorandum, the two sides will give full play to the leading role of the high-level policy dialogue mechanism, further enhance understanding and mutual trust, strengthen policy eouu.cnmunication and coordination, enrich and expand cooperation areas, and support enterprises and institutions to deepen practical cooperation such as technical exchanges, project investment and financing. The two sides agreed to initiate the preparation of the China-EU circular economy roadmap, refine and implement the goals and tasks of China-EU circular economy cooperation in the next stage, and contribute greater strength to global environmental and climate governance.

2. The Bank of England joins European regulators and warns of the risk of the dollar

Three sources said that the Bank of England has asked some banks to test their resilience to the potential shocks of the dollar, which is the most important way for the Trump administration to erode people's trust in the United States as the cornerstone of financial stability.New signs. U.S. President Trump has broken down U.S. long-term policies in areas such as free trade and defense, forcing policy makers to consider whether urgently providing the dollar can still be relied on during a time of financial pressure. The Bank of England has asked some banks to evaluate their dollar financing plans and their reliance on the dollar, including short-term demand, after similar requests from European regulators, a person familiar with the matter said. Another source said a global bank based in the UK has been asked to conduct internal stress tests in recent weeks, including the possibility that the dollar swap market could eouu.cnpletely dry up. One of the sources said that given the dollar's dominance in the global financial system and the bank's dependence on the dollar, no bank can withstand such a shock for more than a few days.

3. Analysts: The Bank of England has not yet needed to speed up its rate cuts

The latest UK employment data shows that the labor market continues to weaken, but it has not yet been soft enough to prompt the Bank of England to make substantial adjustments to its interest rate outlook. Although Bank of England Governor Bailey recently spoke, saying that a larger rate cut depends on significant weakness, overall, the data tends to stick to quarterly rate cuts. Data shows that the unemployment rate rose from 4.6% to 4.7%, and the number of employment in the UK's General Administration of Taxation and Customs (HMRC) has dropped by 41,000. However, the data in the previous months revised from -109,000 to -25,000, which is perhaps the most noteworthy progress. Nevertheless, the trend of weak data remains clear, which will continue to put pressure on the pound. Therefore, GBP bears should maintain an upper hand, especially for the euro, where the euro/GBP decline may be shallow, as the path with minimal resistance is still tilted towards the upside.

4. Fed Chairman Candidate Wash: Fed independence is "critical"

Kevin Warsh, one of the next Fed Chairman candidates, said that Fed's independence is "critical". "History tells us that independent operations in monetary policy implementation are crucial, but this does not mean that the Fed has independence in everything else." Warsh always pursued a hawkish interest rate policy aimed at dealing with inflation risks during his tenure as Fed director from 2006 to 2011; but this year he advocated a rate cut, which is consistent with U.S. President Trump. Trump is considering nominating who will take over his position after President Powell's term ends in May (next year).

5. Federal Reserve Director Waller: FOMC should cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month

Federal Reserve Director Waller explained three reasons for his support for interest rate cuts. First, tariffs are a one-time price increase, and will not trigger sustained inflation after a brief surge. As long as inflation expectations are stable (and it is true at the moment), the Fed's standard practice is to "ignor" this type of price level impact. Secondly, a large amount of data shows that monetary policy should be close to neutral rather than restrictive. The real GDP growth rate may be around 1% in the first half of this year, and it is expected that the remainder of 2025 will remain weak, far lower than the median expectation of FOMC members of the long-term GDP growth rate. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is 4.1%, close to the eouu.cnmission’s estimate of the long-term unemployment rate. If we remove the tariff impacts that I think are temporary, overall inflation is slightly above 2%, which is close to our target. Overall, these data mean that policy interest rates should be maintained near neutral levels - the median neutral interest rate estimated by FOMC eouu.cnmittee members is 3%, while the current interest rate is 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points higher than 3%, which is obviously not in the neutral range. The final reason for supporting the current rate cut is that although the labor market appears to be fine, taking into account the private sector employment growth has approached stagnation after the expected data correction, other data also show an increase in downside risk in the labor market. With inflation approaching the target and the risk of upward inflation is limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before cutting interest rates.

Institutional View

1. Morgan Stanley: The ECB may not protest too much about the recent strengthening of the euro

Morgan Stanley strategists said in a report that the ECB is unlikely to protest too much about the recent strengthening of the euro. They said recent remarks by ECB policymakers at the Sintra meeting in Portugal “caused investors overestimate the extent of the ECB’s resistance to the euro strengthening.” Morgan Stanley believes that the euro is currently experiencing a short-term tactical pullback, downward to the $1.15 range, but it is expected to rebound further in the future.

2. Analysts: The short-term rebound of the US dollar will not change the overall downward trend.

Analyst Marc Cogliatti, an analyst at Validus Risk Management, said in a report that investors may continue to withdraw funds from U.S. assets, which will push the dollar to weaken in the long run. He pointed out that U.S. policy uncertainty may prompt investors to diversify their assets (reduce their dependence on U.S. assets). In the short term, demand for safe-haven assets may support the strengthening of the US dollar due to the decline in risk appetite, but the overall selling trend will continue. Foreign investors are still diversifying their investment in U.S. assets, and the short-term rebound will not change the overall downward trend.

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CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Powell uncertainty and retail sales data intensify volatility, dollar index rebounds

Analysis of major currencies

1. The Second China-Europe High-Level Policy Dialogue on Circular Economy was successfully held

2. The Bank of England joins European regulators and warns of the risk of the dollar

3. Analysts: The Bank of England has not yet needed to speed up its rate cuts

4. Fed Chairman Candidate Wash: Fed independence is "critical"

5. Federal Reserve Director Waller: FOMC should cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month

Institutional View

1. Morgan Stanley: The ECB may not protest too much about the recent strengthening of the euro

2. Analysts: The short-term rebound of the US dollar will not change the overall downward trend.

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Powell uncertainty and retail sales data intensify volatility, dollar index rebounds

Analysis of major currencies

1. The Second China-Europe High-Level Policy Dialogue on Circular Economy was successfully held

2. The Bank of England joins European regulators and warns of the risk of the dollar

3. Analysts: The Bank of England has not yet needed to speed up its rate cuts

4. Fed Chairman Candidate Wash: Fed independence is "critical"

5. Federal Reserve Director Waller: FOMC should cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month

Institutional View

1. Morgan Stanley: The ECB may not protest too much about the recent strengthening of the euro

2. Analysts: The short-term rebound of the US dollar will not change the overall downward trend.

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason