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market analysis

Breaking through the golden daily line becomes the key, and currency pairs have taken the lead in breaking through

Wonderful introduction:

Walk out of the thorns, there is a bright road covered with flowers; when you reach the top of the mountain, you will see the cloudy mountain scenery like green clouds. In this world, a star falls and cannot dim the starry sky, a flower withers and cannot desolate the whole spring.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Breaking the golden daily line watershed has become the key, and the currency pair has taken the lead in breaking through." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

As an important global safe-haven asset, gold has been affected by multiple factors recently and has been eouu.cnplicated in its trend. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on June 18, but slowed down the pace of future interest rate cuts, weakening market expectations for rapid easing, causing gold prices to fall. At the same time, it pointed out that Trump's high tariff policy may push up inflation. Although rising inflation is good for gold's anti-inflation attributes, the strengthening of the US dollar will suppress gold prices.

Trump's tariff policy has attracted attention. The passing of tariff costs has enabled inflation expectations to support gold prices in the medium term, but it has suspended some high tariff plans, alleviating the demand for gold safe-haven. In terms of geopolitical aspects, the conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated. Although the US dollar's safe-haven status has rebounded, the attractiveness of gold has not diminished, and the uncertainty of the situation provides support for gold prices.

The U.S. economic data is weak, labor market momentum weakens, real estate market is hit, and the economy may shrink. At present, the gold market is under policy and inflation pressure, but it also has the upward momentum caused by geopolitical and economic slowdowns. Investors need to pay attention to inflation, labor market and the situation in the Middle East to seize investment opportunities.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed an upward trend on Wednesday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 98.988 on the day, and fell to 98.432 at the lowest, and finally closed at 98.855. Looking back at the market performance on Wednesday, the price was revised downward as expected during the early trading session, and the European market fluctuated upward in the short term, and the US market was under pressure quickly after the trading session, and the price just reached the four-hour support position and stopped. The overnight price was affected by the news, as the author said, the price rose further, and finally the daily line was positive and the price also broke through the daily line resistance as scheduled. Pay attention to further follow-upcontinue.

From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 100.35 area of resistance at the weekly level, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 98.70 position over time. The current price is as the author said to further test this area. For the future, we need to focus on the performance of daily resistance breakthrough and steady progress. At the same time, the price in the four-hour market ended up rising after testing to the four-hour support position as scheduled yesterday. At present, it is expected that it will continue to rely on the four-hour support layout in the future. Just focus on the 98.70-80 range in position. At present, the price closed strongly in the early morning of yesterday. After opening today, it soared directly and broke through yesterday's high point. Therefore, today's morning low point will become the key support. You can continue to look at the rise based on the early low point area. Also, from the trend line, the price has broken through the upper edge of the previous decline channel. Pay attention to further increase in the future. Focus on the 99.30-99.60 area above.

The US dollar index has a long range of 98.70-80, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 99.30-99.60

Gold

In terms of gold, the price of gold generally showed a decline on Wednesday. The price rose to the highest point of 3399.88 on the day, and fell to the lowest point of 3362.39 on the spot, closing at 3369.12 on the spot. On Wednesday, gold was under pressure near the four-hour resistance test in the early trading session. After that, the price continued to test the four-hour resistance. The intraday price continued to run between the four-hour resistance and the previous day's low point range. At the same time, the price was under pressure and fell as expected due to receipts during the overnight period. Finally, the daily line ended with a big negative. Although the price has not actually broken the daily line support, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the performance of the breaking down in the future.

From multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price runs at the rhythm in May as the author said, and the final cross state. For June, focus on the gains and losses of May high and low points, the price will only be a real break at this position, and the long-term watershed is at 2780. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3255-60 area. So from the perspective of the medium-term, it is still in the mid-term bull market, and only the price will be further under pressure if it breaks the weekly support. From the daily level, the price is close to the daily support in the overnight range yesterday. The subsequent focus is on the gains and losses of the daily support 3262. Once the price breaks down, it needs to pay attention to the continuation in the future. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, the current price in the four-hour period shows a volatile decline. Therefore, in terms of operation, the above is temporarily focused on the 3295 regional resistance, and the below is concerned about yesterday's gains and losses. Once the price breaks through, it will continue further.

Gold 3395 is under pressure, defending US$10, targeting 3362-3350-3315

European and American

Europe Under pressure.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the perspective of the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported at 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1255 area, and continue to be bullish from the perspective of the midline. The price fall is temporarily treated as a correction in the rise of the midline. From the daily level, as time goes by, it is temporarily necessary to focus on the further performance of the 1.1460 area, and the subsequent pressure operation of Europe and the United States is expected to be further operated in the pressure mode. According to the four-hour level, you need to pay attention to the 1.1490-1.1500 range, and follow this area to pay attention to further pressure. From the one-hour level, you are currently in short performance, and follow further attention to further continue.

Europe and the United States have a range of 1.1490-1.1500, with a defense of 40 points, and a target of 1.1420-1.1370

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Thursday, June 19, 2025

①09:00 China's May Swift RMB accounts for global payments

②09:30 Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

③14:00 Switzerland's May trade account

④15:30 Swiss National Bank announces interest rate resolution

⑤19:00 Bank of England public Bryant Rate Resolution and Meeting Minutes

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Breaking through the golden daily line becomes the key, and currency pairs have taken the lead in breaking through

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Breaking through the golden daily line becomes the key, and currency pairs have taken the lead in breaking through

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