Focusing on EIA data, Khamenei calls for never compromise, gold price approaches $3,400 per ounce, API inventory drops by more than 10 million barrels

Basic news

On Wednesday (June 18, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,389.80/ounce, approaching $3,400/ounce; geopolitical tension in the Middle East continued, and Iran's supreme leader Khamenei said that he must strongly attack Israel and never eouu.cnpromise; U.S. crude oil rose nearly 1%, trading around $73.76/barrel. Oil prices benefited from geopolitical tensions, but also benefited from API showing that inventory data fell by more than 10 million barrels, the largest single-week decline since the week of August 25, 2023.

Focus on this day

Bank of Canada Governor McClum delivered a speech on Canada's economic outlook, inflation trends and interest rates, and many European Central Bank officials spoke.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed down on Tuesday, and the conflict between Israel and Iran entered its fifth day. Investors were in high anxiety and the US military was mobilizing fighter jets to the Middle East.

In the afternoon, the stock index fell widening, and the Cboe volatility index closed at 21.6 points, the highest closing level since May 23. Reuters quoted three U.S. officials as saying that the U.S. military is deploying more fighter jets to the Middle East and extending the deployment time of other fighter jets.

U.S. President Trump urges Iran to "surrender unconditionally." The war began on Friday when Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities.

Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at Bank of America Wealth Management in Minneapolis, Minnesota, said: "We are in a position to be able to do so."A period when the visibility is low, uncertainty is great, and the wall of worry is under construction. "

In addition to the Middle East conflict, investors are also paying close attention to any new information on Trump's tariffs, tax cuts and U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to make a monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with policymakers generally believing that interest rates will remain unchanged.

All major sectors of the S&P 500 have fallen, with only the energy sector rising as oil prices rise. Investors are worried that the conflict will create a bottleneck for oil exports in the oil-rich Middle East. Defense stocks have also risen, with Lolockheed Martin up 2.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 0.70% to 42,215.80 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.84% ​​to 5,982.72 points; and the Nasdaq 0.91% to 1,952 1.09 points. Sandven said that the market may be sideways until investors get more clear information, but earnings and other factors may still be good for the stock market.

U.S. Senate Republicans later on Monday unveiled suggestions for amendments to Trump’s tax cuts, including the gradual removal of solar, wind and energy tax credits by 2028, with solar stocks falling with it. Earlier Tuesday, data showed U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in May, while factory production grew almost no longer last month.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at AnnexWealth Management, said: "Resilient consumers are becoming timid." "

Gold market

Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday as tensions in Iran and Israel boosted safe-haven demand, but the dollar strengthened limited gains, while silver prices soared to a 13-year high. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,390.59 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settlement price fell 0.3% to $3,406.9. Jim Wycoff, senior analyst at KitcoMetals, said, "Geopolitical uncertainty, and the Israeli-Iran war that could escalate before ease, will support the market's safe-haven buying. ”

As the fifth day of the Israeli-Iran air war, U.S. President Trump said he hopes the nuclear dispute with Iran “really ended” and said he may send senior U.S. officials to meet with Iranian officials.

In addition, the Federal Reserve will announce a policy decision on Wednesday, followed by Chairman Powell to hold a press conference. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, which has remained at that level since December last year. Low interest rate environment and geopolitical uncertainty tend to enhance the attractiveness of gold.

Spot silver rose nearly 2% to $37.05 per ounce, hitting its highest level since February 2012.

Citi said in a report that in the next six to 12 months, whiteSilver prices may rise to $40.

Platinum rose 1.5% to $1,264.61 per ounce, while palladium rose 1.7% to $1,047.54 per ounce. Oil markets

Oil prices climbed more than 4% on Tuesday as conflicts between Iran and Israel continue to show no signs of ending, although major oil and gas infrastructure and trade have not been substantially affected so far.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $76.45 per barrel, up 4.4%. U.S. crude oil closed at $74.84 a barrel, up 4.28%.

While there is no significant disruption in oil circulation, the South Pals oil field shared by Iran and Qatar partially suspended gas production after an attack in Israel last Saturday triggered a fire. Israel also attacked Iran's Shahran oil depot. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said the ongoing air strikes between Israel and Iran have brought geopolitical risks to the oil market, which has realized the tight balance of supply and demand.

Flynn said: "This is not a one-time deal; it may be more similar to Russia and Ukraine."

Despite the possibility of supply disruptions, there are signs that oil supply remains sufficient in the expectation of a decline in demand.

In Tuesday's monthly oil report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its world oil demand forecast by 20,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast and increased its supply forecast by 200,000 barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day.

PVMAssociates analyst Tamas Varga said in a note that investors are also paying attention to interest rate decisions by central banks, and the U.S. Federal Open Market eouu.cnmittee will discuss interest rates later on Tuesday.

Foreign market

The US dollar rose against major currencies such as the euro and the yen on Tuesday, as U.S. economic data softened and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel attacked Iran made investors nervous, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday.

As the war continues, the U.S. military is strengthening the region's military, deploying more fighter jets, and expanding the deployment of other fighters, which has intensified geopolitical risks this week. Several central banks held meetings this week.

Economic data show that as trade and inflation uncertainty continues, U.S. consumers become more cautious, while investors fear that Israel and Iran’s battles escalate into broader regional conflicts.

In terms of data, U.S. retail sales were weaker than expected in May, but consumer spending was still supported by steady wage growth.

The US dollar initially weakened after the data was released, but as the market digested the mixed situation reflected by the data, the US dollar quickly reversed its decline. The yen gave up on the gains recorded earlier after the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision.

MesirowCurrencyManagement Advanced"The U.S. dollar has shown less traditional risk aversion recently, largely due to the U.S. itself creating market uncertainty through changing and unclear trade policies. However, the U.S. is back to support amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict, an external global risk event. This was reflected when the conflict broke out last Friday, and today the tensions are intensifying, the U.S. dollar has gained support again."

As the Israeli-Iran conflict enters its fifth day, overall risk sentiment remains fragile. At the end of the two-day monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% as expected and decided to slow down its balance sheet reduction next year.

After the decision was announced, the yen fluctuated between the rise and fall, turning to a decline during the press conference of President Ueda Kazuo. The dollar rose 0.4% against the Japanese yen to 145.32 yen at the end of the trading day. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Trump have not reached a trade deal.

The development of the situation in the Middle East has caused tensions among investors, and Trump said on Tuesday that he hopes the nuclear dispute with Iran "really ended" and said he may send senior U.S. officials to meet with Iranian officials.

The White House said on Monday that due to the situation in the Middle East, Trump will leave the G7 summit in Canada a day early, while Trump asked the National Security Council to prepare in the war situation room.

The euro fell 0.68% against the US dollar to $1.1481. GBP to USD. It fell 1.08% to $1.3430. Trump signed an agreement on Monday to formally reduce some tariffs on British imports, and the two countries continue to work to reach a formal trade deal.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell 0.8% to $0.6474. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.64% to 98.8.

The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday became the focus of foreign exchange market observers. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus will remain on any guidance on interest rate outlook.

Investors are also paying attention to other central banks’ decisions, including those of the Bank of England and Swedish Bank later this week to judge future market trends.

International News

U.S. API crude oil inventories fell sharply last week by more than 10 million barrels

Data from the American Petroleum Association (API) showed that in the week of June 13, U.S. API crude oil inventories were -10.133 million barrels, the largest single-week decline since the week of August 25, 2023, and -370,000 barrels in the previous week.

The U.S. Credit Risk Index may hit its largest single-day decline in nearly a month

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, indicators that measure the level of credit panic in U.S. eouu.cnpanies may hit its largest single-day decline since May 21. As of 16:20 NY time on Tuesday, MarkitCDX North American Investment Grade Index (which rises with the rise in risk)The spread widened by 2.6 basis points to 56.9 basis points. MarkitCDX North American High-yield Index (which declines as risk increases) fell 0.55 basis points to 106.1 basis points.

U.S. intelligence shows that Iran has been preparing for the possibility of attacking U.S. bases

According to the New York Times, U.S. officials familiar with the matter said that Iran has prepared missiles and other military equipment, and once the United States joins the Israeli war against Iran, Iran will launch an attack on U.S. bases in the Middle East. According to reports, the United States has sent about 36 tankers to Europe that can be used to help protect fighter jets at U.S. bases or to expand the range of bombers, which may launch attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. As Israel presses the White House to intervene in the conflict with Iran, U.S. officials are increasingly worried about a broader war. Officials say Iran-backed Houthi forces will almost certainly resume attacks on Red Sea vessels if the United States joins Israel's operations and launches attacks on Iran's important nuclear facility Fordo. They added that pro-Iranian militia in Iraq and Syria may attempt to attack U.S. bases there. Other officials say Iran may begin to mine mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategy designed to trap U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, other officials said.

Education National Security Advisor: Military operations will not be ended unless the Iranian Fordo nuclear facilities are destroyed

On the 17th local time, Israel's national security adviser Hanegbi said that Israel's military operations against Iran "will not end unless the Iran nuclear facilities are destroyed." Hanegby said Israel is maintaining continuous eouu.cnmunication with the United States but has not tried to convince the other party to join. Hanegbi said the action plan was entirely formulated by Israel and covered all elements of the offensive operation. It is reported that Iran's Fordo underground nuclear facility is located 90 meters underground and has thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges inside. Israel's conventional weapons cannot strike targets of such depth. To destroy the facility, US military intervention is required.

U.S. Congress Budget Office: The "Big and US" bill will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion

According to CCTV News, on June 17 local time, a more eouu.cnprehensive analysis released by the US Congress Budget Office on the same day showed that after accounting for economic impact, the Trump administration's tax reform and budget bill will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion in the next decade. The report, which took the expected debt repayment costs into consideration, found that the bill would raise interest rates and increase interest expenses by $441 billion on the basis of the federal debt benchmark forecast. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office released a static scoring analysis earlier this month, which estimates that the Trump administration’s bill will bring trillions of dollars in tax cuts and spending cuts, but will also lead to a $2.4 trillion increase in the deficit over a decade and lead to an additional 10.9 million people losing health insurance.

US media: US attack on Iran is one of the options Trump considers

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. government officials said Trump was considering a range of options, including a possible U.S. attack on Iran when he met with senior advisers in the situation room on Tuesday. Officials said no decision has been made yet. Trump, who has been urging diplomatic solutions to the problem, wants to ensure Iran cannot develop its nuclear capabilities.

The London Metal Exchange copper inventory has dropped sharply, and the spot copper price has soared as traders eouu.cnpete for the decline in copper in stocks in exchange warehouses. On Tuesday, contracts that will expire in one day were at a premium of US$36 per ton eouu.cnpared to contracts due next day, the widest since the historic supply was tight in 2021. Although this so-called tomorrow/next day spread declines near the close, other medium- and long-term limit spreads continue to tighten. Although copper supply has been tightening for months, the supply tightening pressure faced by buyers is about to peak on the eve of the expiration of the LME June contract on Wednesday. If short holders hold until maturity, copper is required to be delivered, and the surge in tomorrow/next day spreads reflects the rising cost of delaying delivery obligations for one day.

Source: Qatar requires LNG ships to wait outside the Strait of Hormuz to be loaded

According to a person who knows directly, Qatar has asked LNG ships to wait outside the Strait of Hormuz until they are ready to load. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the preventive directive recommended that vessels avoid entering the area a day before loading and would not be expected to cause delays in shipments. About 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a key throat for ships. Speculation that oil transport may be delayed has pushed up energy prices due to a conflict between Israel and Iran a few days ago.

U.S. home builder confidence fell to its lows since late 2022, subject to high interest rates and economic concerns

U.S. home builder confidence fell to its lowest level since December 2022 in June, with high mortgage rates and concerns about tariffs and the economy deterring potential buyers. The overall market conditions index, jointly released by the National Association of Residential Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, fell 2 points to 32. Economists surveyed estimates were 36. All three eouu.cnponents of the overall index fell, with the current sales index falling to its lows since 2012. Potential homebuyers' tenant flow indicators and expected sales outlook for the next six months have hit more than a year low.

Domestic News

Lujiazui Forum opened today, and the window for release of new financial policies has opened

With the convening of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the market is looking forward to it and looking forward to capturing new policy signals. Zhou Xiaoquan, executive deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Party eouu.cnmittee Financial Office, previously revealed at the forum press conference that the central financial management department will issue several major financial policies during the forum;Li Kexin, deputy director of the General Office of the People's Bank of China, said that the relevant policy reserves are being accelerated to support the construction of Shanghai's international financial center, "There are still some policies that are being accelerated in a rush."

The Export-Import Bank of China issued a plan to promote the stable development of foreign trade

The bank learned from the Export-Import Bank of China that the bank recently issued a special work plan to further strengthen financial support in the foreign trade field and promote stable growth of foreign trade. According to the work plan, the Export-Import Bank of China will give full play to its advantages in deepening its overseas market and support manufacturing enterprises to "go global" with high quality through the support strategies of interconnected enterprises, industries and parks. For import and export trade based on traditional models, we will strengthen various credit policies and resource tilts, and continue to consolidate financial support for different types of foreign trade entities and foreign trade industry foundations. In view of the characteristics of new business forms such as cross-border e-commerce, explore the "policy-based finance +" support model to jointly cultivate new momentum for the development of foreign trade. In the next step, Export-Import Bank will continue to increase financial support for key areas and weak links of foreign trade, strive to solve the pain points and difficulties faced by the current development of foreign trade enterprises, and fully support the high-quality development of foreign trade.

The US exhibitors at the 3rd Chain Expo increased by 15% eouu.cnpared with the previous session

The third Chain Expo will be held in Beijing from July 16 to July 20, with the theme of "Link the world and create a future together." On the morning of June 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the preparations for the third Chain Expo. Li Xingqian, vice president of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, introduced that the number of American exhibitors participating in the third Chain Expo increased by 15% eouu.cnpared with the previous session, continuing to rank first among the number of overseas exhibitors. Relevant officials from the American Chamber of eouu.cnmerce of China, American Soybean Export Association, American Cereals Association and other institutions said that China is a very important market, and American eouu.cnpanies are willing to continue to invest in China, participate in China's economic growth and innovation, and make progress together with the Chinese market and development. Li Xingqian said that the essence of Sino-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win results. It is in line with the eouu.cnmon interests of the business eouu.cnmunity of both countries to promote mutually beneficial cooperation.

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