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Super central bank week, the U.S., Britain, Japan and Swedish central banks are crowded with decisions, and Switzerland only expects interest rate cuts

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A quiet path will always arouse a relaxed yearning in twists and turns; a huge wave, the thrilling sound can be even more stacked when the tide rises and falls; a story, only with regrets and sorrows can bring about a heart-wrenching desolation; a life, where the ups and downs show the stunning heroism.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: Super Central Bank Week, the U.S., Britain, Japan and Swedish Bank of China have made a large decision, and only Switzerland expects a rate cut." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM: Super Central Bank Week, the U.S., Britain, Japan and Swedish Bank of China are crowded with resolutions, and Switzerland only expects interest rate cuts.

XM Forecast this week: The importance of economic data to be released this week is from high to low: Federal Reserve interest rate resolution, Bank of England interest rate resolution, Bank of Japan interest rate resolution, and Swiss National Bank of China interest rate resolution. Next, we will interpret it one by one.

▲XM chart

This Thursday at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the June interest rate resolution. The main force expects it to remain unchanged, and the federal funds interest rate range remains unchanged from 4.25 to 4.5%. The last rate cut by the Federal Reserve was in December 2024, when it was the term of former U.S. President Biden. The Fed has not cut any interest rates since incumbent President Trump was sworn in in January this year. According to economic data, in the second half of 2024, the US inflation rate continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 3%. There is no need to cut interest rates under this situation. On the contrary, in the first half of this year, the U.S. inflation rate continued to decline, falling to a low of 2.3%, and the reason for the decline in interest rates was very good. The Fed cut interest rates during a period of high inflation and remained silent during a period of low inflation, and US President Trump was extremely dissatisfied with this. At 02:30 on the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference to focus on his statements on future interest rate paths, inflation data and unemployment rate data. Last week, U.S. President Trump once again criticized Fed Chairman Powell and urged him to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Powell is expected to clarify the matter at this press conference. According toIn the past experience, Powell is likely to not succumb to Trump and insists on his view that "there is no sufficient reason to cut interest rates." The disagreement between the White House and the Federal Reserve may weaken the influence of the dollar.

▲XM chart

This Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce the results of the June interest rate resolution. Mainstream expectations believe that it will remain unchanged and maintain the 4.25% benchmark interest rate unchanged. Since July 2024, the Bank of England has cut interest rates four times, with a cumulative increase of 100 basis points. The latest rate cut occurred in May, and there was no problem of a suspension of interest rate cuts like the Federal Reserve. The reason why financial institutions predict that the Bank of England will remain unchanged is because the Bank of England believes that the pace of rate cuts before was too fast. As BoE chief economist Peel said: "The rate cut since last summer is too fast, and the exit of restricted interest rates needs to slow down." Since the beginning of this year, the 10-year UK Treasury yield has maintained a sideways fluctuation and has not declined as quickly as the causal benchmark interest rate. This is also a signal that the Bank of England will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged for a long time.

▲XM chart

During the Asian session on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan will announce the results of the June interest rate resolution, and mainstream expectations believe that it will maintain the benchmark interest rate of 0.5%. From the perspective of economic data, Japan's core CPI annual rate in April was 3.5%, the highest level since February 2023, and has long exceeded the moderate inflation standard of 2%. If the Bank of Japan cannot raise interest rates to restrictive levels as soon as possible, a high inflation crisis may break out in Japan. However, the tariff policy proposed by the United States in April broke institutional expectations of Japan's inflation trend. As of now, the mainstream view believes that if the Japanese-US negotiations do not reach an optimistic result, Japan's export industry will suffer a heavy blow. To prevent an economic recession, the Bank of Japan not only cannot raise interest rates, but may also be forced to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. At 14:30 on the same day, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy to focus on his statements on tariff policies, interest rate paths and inflation prospects. If you express your pessimism, the yen will suffer a shock.

▲XM chart

This Thursday at 15:30, the Swiss National Bank will announce the results of the June interest rate resolution. The mainstream expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the benchmark interest rate will be reduced from 0.25% to zero. The Swiss National Bank is the only central bank among the four major central banks this week to be expected to cut interest rates. The main reason is that eouu.cnpared with other developed countries in Europe and the United States, Switzerland's inflation rate is too weak. Switzerland's core CPI annual rate in May was only 0.5%, marking October 2021The lowest since then. According to the current rate of decline, Switzerland will experience deflation in two or three months. For the Swiss National Bank, only by depreciating the Swiss franc can the deflation situation be avoided. Therefore, in this Thursday's interest rate decision, the Swiss National Bank's interest rate cut may exceed 25 basis points. However, considering that the Swiss franc has a safe-haven attribute, there is still uncertainty as to whether the Swiss central bank's interest rate cut can reverse the appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro.

XM Risk Warning, Disclaimer, Special Statement: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

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