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market analysis

Fed meeting minutes and important economic data will be released soon, the market is waiting for breath

Wonderful introduction:

Spring flowers will bloom! If you have ever experienced winter, then you will have spring! If you have dreams, then spring will definitely not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have flowers blooming in the garden.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and important economic data will be released soon, and the market will hold its breath." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

The Trump administration postponed the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU and extended the implementation date to July 9. This unexpected decision became the fuse for the violent market fluctuations. The EU responded positively that the US-EU trade negotiations have ushered in a buffer period, but the global market has been affected and the gold market is in a dilemma of bulls and bears intertwining. The dollar index strengthened, with a rise of 1% against the yen, putting pressure on the price of gold denominated in US dollars; the three major U.S. stock indexes rose sharply, with the Dow Jones soaring 740 points, and technology stocks led the rise to attract funds out of the gold market. Although the Fed may suspend interest rate hikes theoretically favor gold, it has been ignored because the market focuses on easing trade. The U.S. economic data is contradictory, consumer confidence index jumps, but core durable goods orders have dropped sharply. Although geopolitical risks continue, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates and Russia strikes back hard, it has not effectively boosted gold prices. In the future, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, important economic data and the progress of US-EU trade negotiations will have a profound impact on the gold market. Investors need to respond carefully and seize potential opportunities.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed an upward trend on Tuesday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 99.593 on the day, and fell to 98.75 at the lowest, and finally closed at 99.566. Looking back at the market performance on Tuesday, the price fluctuated upwardly after a short-term fluctuation during the early trading session. From the position, the price broke through the four-hour resistance position. At the same time, the breakthrough before the European session in time indicates that there is further performance in the short term. After that, the US continued to rise, and the price finally ended with a big positive state.

From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 101.70 area of resistance, so from a medium-term perspective, the US dollar index will move.The trend will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 100.20 position over time, and below the price, the focus is on further pressure. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, as time goes by, the price broke through the four-hour resistance position yesterday, and the short-term price is relatively high, and the subsequent focus is on the gains and losses of daily resistance. From the one-hour perspective, the price has further downward performance, so overall, focus on the support of the four-hour 99.20-30 range, and further look at the test area of 100.20.

The US dollar index has a long range of 99.20-30, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 99.80-100.20

Gold

In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a decline on Tuesday. The price rose to the highest point of 3349.85 on the day, and fell to the lowest point of 3285.21 on the spot, closing at 3300.4. Regarding the price of gold fluctuated first during the early trading session on Tuesday, and the price yesterday fell below the previous day's low point, which was weak in the short term, so it cannot be treated in a very strong way. After that, the price continued to be weak and stopped near the low point of the recent fluctuation. After the US market, the price fluctuated upward in the short term, and the price ended on the same day with a big negative end. We cannot be too bearish for the moment before the price fell below the daily support.

From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four-month period, so according to the rhythm, there have been four consecutive positives. For the current May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3160 area. So from the mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. The price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise, and the price will be further under pressure only if it breaks the weekly support. Judging from the daily level, the daily level is currently supported in the 3275 area. Below this position, we will pay attention to further bands and look at the rise. At the same time, from the four-hour level, yesterday's price fell below the four-hour support position of 3323, which was in short term, so it was temporarily necessary to pay attention to the 3275-3323 range, and the price will further continue after breaking through the range. The short-term price has shown a further rebound in one hour, so be cautious for the time being and follow further after the subsequent break period.

Gold pays attention to the 3275-3323 range to break and follow

Europe and the United States

Europe and the United States were generally on Tuesday. The price fell to 1.1322 on the day, and rose to 1.1406 on the spot and closed at 1.1323 on the spot. Looking back on the performance of European and American markets on Tuesday, prices rose continuously in the early trading first, and then under pressure again.The break below the four-hour support position is a break below the European market from the time point. After the US market, the price fell back to the four-hour resistance after the market, and the final closing was at a low level. The focus will be on the gains and losses of the daily support in the future.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0800, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1090 area, and continues to look bullish from the perspective of the mid-line. The price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance position upwardly last week, and the resistance becomes support, and then the price will continue to operate above the daily support. At present, we will pay attention to the support position of the daily 1.1255 position to further increase the price. From the short-term four-hour level, yesterday the market fell below the four-hour support, and the previous four-hour support changed resistance. At the position, the 1.1360-70 range is temporarily focused on the 1.1360-70 range. Therefore, looking at the current band and medium-term rises, we pay attention to the pressure in the short term, and then pay attention to whether the rise can be further increased after the subsequent test reaches the daily support.

Europe and the United States have a range of 1.1255-65, with a defense of 40 points, and a target of 1.1300-1.1340

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Wednesday, May 28, 2025

① The 39th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries are held.

② The U.S. Vice President Vance delivered a speech at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference

③08:00 Federal Reserve Williams attended a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan Financial Research Institute meeting

④09:30 Australian April weighted CPI annual rate

⑤10:00 New Zealand Fed announced interest rate resolution and monetary policy statement

⑥11:00 New Zealand Fed Acting Chairman Hawksby held a press conference

14:45France's annual GDP annual rate final value

⑧15:55Germany's May Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

⑨15:55Germany's May Seasonal Adjusted Unemployment Rate

16:00Swiss May ZEW Investor Confidence Index

22:00US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

The next day 02:00Federal Releases Minutes of May Monetary Policy Meeting

The next day 04:30US the next day to May 23 API crude oil inventories

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