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金融行业的佼佼者
认证最优金牌级别
2014年首届亚军

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This week, the RBA resolution, Japan's April CPI, and the minutes of the ECB meeting

Wonderful introduction:

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: Pay attention to the RBA resolution, Japan's April CPI, and the minutes of the ECB meeting this week." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM foreign exchange market: This week's focus on the RBA resolution, Japan's April CPI, and the minutes of the ECB meeting.

XM foreign exchange market: The importance of the economic data to be released this week is from high to low: the RBA interest rate resolution, the minutes of the ECB meeting, and Japan's April CPI data. Next, we will interpret it one by one.

▲XM chart

This Tuesday at 12:30, the RBA will announce its interest rate resolution. Mainstream expectations believe that it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the benchmark interest rate dropped from 4.1% to 3.85%. The RBA is very cautious about rate cuts. In the past year or so, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points. The RBA only cut interest rates once, with a 25 basis points increase. The RBA rate cut is slower than the Fed, and the Australian dollar has stronger appreciation momentum than the US dollar without considering other factors. From the perspective of economic data, Australia's annual CPI rate in March was 2.4%, which was higher than the moderate inflation standard of 2%, and the urgency of interest rate cuts is not high. The RBA uses more quarterly CPI data to adjust monetary policy. In the first quarter of this year, Australia's core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the moderate inflation standard of 2%, but the data has declined for nine consecutive quarters, and it is likely to fall below 2% this year. Considering the lag of monetary policy, it is logical that the RBA has cut interest rates early. Once the expected rate cut is implemented on Tuesday, the Australian dollar will suffer a shock.

▲XM chart

This Thursday at 19:30, the ECB will release the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting, corresponding to the interest rate resolution on April 17. The result of the resolution was that the ECB announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, and the euro zone deposit mechanism interest rates, main refinancing rates and marginal lending rates fell to 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively. ECB Governor Lagarde said at a press conference that the economic outlook is shrouded in great uncertainty and it is impossible to judge whether the current uncertainty has reached its peak. The so-called "uncertainty" here mainly refers to the United States Radical foreign policy initiated by President Trump. As of now, the EU and the United States have not reached an agreement, so the uncertainty continues. Focus on the judgment of the euro zone economy in the minutes of the meeting. If the attitude is optimistic, it will be favorable to the euro. If the minutes over-express the negative impact of US policies on the economy, the euro will suffer a shock. From the perspective of economic data, the euro zone's core CPI annual rate soared from 2.4% to 2.7% in April, breaking the downward trend that lasted for nearly a year. If inflation continues to rebound in the next few months, the ECB may choose to suspend interest rate cuts, and the euro will be boosted.

▲XM chart

At 7:30 this Friday, the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and eouu.cnmunications will announce the annual rate of core CPI in April, with the previous value of 3.2%, and the expected value of 3.4%. The national CPI annual rate in April was announced at the same time, with the previous value of 3.6%, and the expected value remained the same. Changes in Japan's CPI data are directly related to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week, "The Bank of Japan will appropriately guide monetary policy from the perspective of sustainable achievement of the 2% inflation target." The CPI data for April, whether it is core value or nominal value, are higher than the target level of 2%. To achieve the role of curbing inflation, the Bank of Japan can only continue Increase interest rates. Under the expectation of stable interest rate hikes, the yen has received a strong boost. Considering that other mainstream central banks, such as the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, etc., are following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike policies have formed a huge contrast, and the yen is expected to become one of the best performing currencies in this round of US dollar depreciation cycle.

XM Disclaimer, Special Statement: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the only reference basis. In different periods, analysts' views may change, and the update will not be notified separately.

The above content is about "【XM Group]: Pay attention to the entire content of the RBA resolution, Japan's April CPI, and the ECB meeting minutes this week. It was carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thanks for your support!

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market analysis

This week, the RBA resolution, Japan's April CPI, and the minutes of the ECB meeting

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

market analysis

This week, the RBA resolution, Japan's April CPI, and the minutes of the ECB meeting

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason