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market analysis

Gold focuses on daily resistance and gap replenishment, and treats European and American range fluctuations

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold focuses on daily resistance and gap replenishment, and treats European and American range fluctuations." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

At a time when the global economic and political landscape is changing drastically, a series of data released on Thursday triggered a violent shock in the market. The US economic data in April was weak across the board, with the producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly falling by 0.5%, retail sales growth plummeted to 0.1%, and manufacturing output fell by 0.4%, seriously hitting market confidence in the US economy. Affected by this, the US bond market fluctuated violently, with the 10-year US bond yield plummeting 11 basis points, and the 2-year yield plummeting 9.2 basis points; the US dollar index fell 0.2%, and the real interest rate fell. At the same time, geopolitical risks continue to heat up. The Russian-Ukrainian peace talks are at a deadlock, Putin refuses to meet with Zelensky, and negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement are also not going well. Against this background, the gold's safe-haven attributes are highlighted, and market attention has increased significantly. Looking ahead to this trading day, many important economic data from the United States will be released soon, and the progress of the Russian-Ukrainian talks and Trump's dynamics have also attracted much attention. These factors will continue to affect the market trend.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a volatile downward trend on Thursday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 101.05 on the day, and fell to 100.562 at the lowest, and finally closed at 100.8. Looking back on Thursday's market performance, during the early trading period, the price was first suppressed at the four-hour resistance position, and then continued to suppress the fluctuations below this position within the day, and finally the daily line ended with a big negative. At present, the US dollar index needs to pay attention to the daily support and the four-hour resistance range that breaks.

From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 102.90 area of resistance, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. Prices over time at the daily levelThe key support position is in the 100.30 area, so the subsequent bands are bullish. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, the current four-hour resistance is in the 100.80 area over time. The price tends to fluctuate over the hour, so eouu.cnprehensively, you need to pay attention to the four-hour resistance range of 100.80-100.30, and follow the layout after the range breaks.

The US dollar index fluctuated from 100.30 to 100.80 range, followed by subsequent breaks. Radicals first did not break the daily support. In terms of gold, the gold price overall showed a bottoming out and rebounding on Thursday. The price rose to the highest level on the day, and fell to the lowest level to 3120.56, and closed at 3229.59. Regarding the short-term fluctuation of gold during the early morning session on Thursday, the price of gold was suppressing the high point of the early morning of the previous day, and then the price continued to fall. When the price approached the weekly support, it stopped rising, and the European and American markets continued to rise, and the position broke through the four-hour resistance position, the short-term resistance became support. Follow-up attention will be paid to further test the daily resistance and gap replenishment.

From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four-month period, so according to the rhythm, there have been four consecutive positives. For the current May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3100 area. So from the perspective of the medium-term, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. The price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise. However, we need to pay attention to the price retracement on the weekly support. Only when the price breaks down the weekly support will it be further under pressure. From the daily level, after the opening on Monday, the price gap directly breaks the daily support position, and the previous support will change the resistance. Currently, the upper daily resistance is in the 3282 area, and the gap position is in the 3325 area. At the same time, from the four-hour level, the price broke through yesterday's US trading and closed above the four-hour resistance, so the short-term resistance becomes support. At the position, the support will be temporarily paid to the 3199-3200 range. After the subsequent retracement, we will pay attention to further testing the upper resistance area.

Gold has a long range of 3199-3200, with a defense of 10 US dollars, and a target of 3250-3282-3325

European and the United States

European and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States were generally on Thursday. The price fell to 1.1167 on the day and rose to 1.1227 on the spot and closed at 1.1183 on the spot. Looking back on the performance of European and American markets on Thursday, the morning opening price rebounded further in the short term based on four-hour support, but then under pressure to test the early low point. Although the daily line ended, it still depends on theThe old suppresses the daily resistance and leaves a long upper lead above. Therefore, the focus will be on the gains and losses of daily resistance in the future.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0800, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.0960 area, and continues to be bullish from the perspective of the mid-line. The price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price breaks the daily support after the recent high fluctuation, and at the same time, the price continues to suppress the daily resistance after the breakdown. For short-term short-term treatment at 1.1250 on the band, it will only turn upward after the subsequent breakdown, otherwise it will be short-term treatment on the right. From the short-term four-hour level, European and American market prices have remained in a volatile pattern in recent days, and the long and short price have not continued. The lower support is in the 1.1160 area, and the upper resistance focuses on the daily resistance area. At the same time, according to the one-hour view, Europe and the United States are in short-term fluctuations, so it is currently divided into two ways to treat it. First, if the price does not break the daily resistance, first pay attention to the pressure, and once it breaks, it will be treated with the backhand. The second is to follow the layout after the price breaks through the range of 1.1160-1.1250.

Europe and the United States have a short range of 1.1250-60, defense is 50 points, target 1.1200-1.1160

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Friday, May 16, 2025

① To be determined, the Hang Seng Index eouu.cnpany announced the results of the series of reviews of the Hang Seng Index

②13:30 France's first quarter ILO unemployment rate

③17:00 Eurozone March seasonally adjusted trade account

④20:30 The total number of new houses in the United States in April was annualized

⑤ 20:30 Total number of construction permits in the United States in April

⑥20:30 Monthly rate of the United States import price index in April

⑦22:00 The expected initial value of the one-year inflation rate in May

⑧22:00 The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May

⑨The next day 01:00 The total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States to May 16

Note: The above is only personal opinion and strategy, for reference and eouu.cnmunication only, and does not give customers any investment advice. It has nothing to do with customers' investment, and is not used as a basis for placing an order.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Gold focuses on daily resistance and gap replenishment, and treats fluctuations in Europe and the United States". It is carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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