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market analysis

China and the United States suddenly circulated new bans and officials' negotiations fell into disagreement!

Wonderful Introduction:

Love sometimes does not require the promise of vows, but she must need meticulous care and greetings; sometimes she does not need the tragic spirit of Liang Zhu turning into a butterfly, but she must need the tacit understanding and eouu.cnpanionship with each other; sometimes she does not need the follower of male and female followers, but she must need the support and understanding of each other.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: China and the United States have sudden outbreak of new bans, and officials have differences in negotiations!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On May 16, during the Asian session on Friday, the US dollar index hovered at 100.70, the US economic data was mixed, and signs of economic weakness gradually emerged. Officials are struggling to negotiate as the United States considers more chip export restrictions to China. Bitcoin bulls encountered strong resistance at $104,000, and gold rebounded to $3,237.

The Financial Times quoted people familiar with the matter as saying on Thursday that the Trump administration is considering putting several Chinese semiconductor eouu.cnpanies on the U.S. export blacklist, but some officials are pushing to postpone the move so as not to disrupt ongoing trade talks with China.

It is reported that the U.S. Department of eouu.cnmerce has drafted a plan to include Changxin Storage Technology Co., Ltd. (CXMT) and its subsidiaries SMIC and Changjiang Storage Technology Co., Ltd. (YMTC) on the "entity list".

SMIC and Yangtze Memory are listed, but this move will expand China's restrictions on obtaining advanced U.S. chip technology.

English media said officials were disagreeing, with some warning that immediate action could endanger the 90-day tariff truce agreement reached in Geneva last weekend, which aims to promote a broader trade agreement.

The report revealed that US security officials believe that China is too easy to obtain sensitive technologies with military uses and needs to adopt stricter controls.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in April, surpassing expectations of flat growth, but failed to change market sentiment.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell year-on-year2.4%, core PPI slowed to 3.1%, supporting dovish policy tendencies.

The number of unemployment benefits applicants stabilized at 229,000, showing no new signs of pressure in the labor market, while the number of continued unemployment benefits increased slightly.

Federal Chairman Powell said that the Fed's eouu.cnmunication methods are about to change and emphasized the need to better deal with future supply shocks.

The market is digesting Powell's eouu.cnment that PCE may be around 2.2% in April and that inflation overshoots are no longer important.

Asian market

Japan's economy shrank by -0.2% month-on-month in the first quarter, which was the first contraction in a year, lower than market expectations -0.1%. On an annualized basis, GDP contracted by -0.7%, which is a disappointing and extreme disappointment eouu.cnpared to the expected -0.2%.

The weakness was mainly driven by external demand, with exports falling -0.6% month-on-month and imports rising 2.9% month-on-month, and external demand reduced growth by -0.8 percentage points.

in the country, the situation is mixed. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's output, remained flat in the quarter. However, capital expenditure provided some support, a steadily increase of 1.4% month-on-month.

At the same time, there was no sign of easing inflation pressure, and the GDP deflator index accelerated from 2.9% year-on-year to 3.3%, higher than the year-on-year expectation of 3.2%.

New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing Performance Index rose slightly from 53.2 to 53.9 in April. Improved employment and new orders drive employment growth, reaching 55.0 and 51.4 respectively, with the employment rate reaching the highest level since July 2021. However, the output dropped slightly to 53.8.

BNZ senior economist Doug Steel pointed out that while the industry did not flourish, the recovery was obvious, with PMI rebounding sharply from its low of 41.4 last June.

Nevertheless, he warned that “because of the uncertainty brought by the sea and the ocean, there are still questions about its sustainability”.

European market

European production in the euro zone increased by 2.6% month-on-month in March, far higher than expected 1.7%. The surge was driven by strong growth in major categories, including capital goods (+3.2%), consumer durable goods (+3.1%) and non-durable consumer goods (+2.3%). Intermediate products also increased slightly by 0.6%, while energy output fell by -0.5%.

Over the entire EU, industrial production increased by 1.9% month-on-month. Ireland led the gains with a significant increase of 14.6%, followed by Malta (+4.4%) and Finland (+3.5%). However, production in Luxembourg (-6.3%), Denmark, Greece (all -4.6%) and Portugal (-4.0%) decreased significantly.

The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, slightly higher than expected 0.6%. Service industry increased month-on-monthLong-term 0.7% and strong 1.1% growth in output led the growth, while construction activity remained flat. Importantly, the actual per capita GDP also increased by 0.5% month-on-month, ending two consecutive quarters of contraction.

In terms of expenditure, the total fixed capital formation increased by 2.9% month-on-month, indicating strong eouu.cnmercial investment. Household consumption also increased slightly by 0.2% month-on-month, while net trade made a positive contribution, with exports increasing by 3.5% month-on-month and imports increasing by 2.1% month-on-month.

Monthly data in March further supported optimistic quarterly data, with GDP growing by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of flat growth. The service industry output performed outstandingly, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, contributing the largest contribution to overall GDP growth. Meanwhile, the construction industry grew by 0.5% month-on-month, offsetting the impact of a 0.7% month-on-month decline in output.

U.S. market

U.S. retail sales in April increased by 0.1% month-on-month to US$724.1B, in line with expectations. Sales except automobiles rose 0.1% month-on-month to USD582.5B, lower than expected 0.3%. Sales without gasoline rose 0.1% month-on-month to $673.1B. Sales except automobiles and gasoline increased by 02% month-on-month to US$531.5B.

Total sales from February to April increased by 4.8% eouu.cnpared with the same period last year.

The US PPI fell -0.5% month-on-month in April, lower than expected 0.2%. PPI services fell -0.7% month-on-month, while PPI products remained unchanged. The PPI of food, energy and trade services fell by -0.1% month-on-month, the first decline since April 2020.

In the past 12 months, PPI has slowed from 2.7% year-on-year to 2.4%, lower than the 2.5% expectation. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI rose 2.9% year-on-year.

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States remained unchanged at 229k, slightly lower than the expected 230k. The four-week moving average of first-time unemployment claims rose 3k to 230.5k.

As of the week ended May 3, the number of people who requested unemployment benefits rose by 9k to 1881k. The 4-week moving average of the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits rose by 1k to 1874k.

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