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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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认证最优金牌级别
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market analysis
The short-term appreciation momentum of the yen is stronger than other non-US currencies
Wonderful introduction:
A person's happiness may be false, and a group of people's happiness cannot tell whether it is true or false. They squandered their youth and wished they could burn it all, and that posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The short-term appreciation momentum of the yen is stronger than other non-US currencies." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM foreign exchange market: The short-term appreciation momentum of the yen is stronger than other non-US currencies
XM foreign exchange market: Yesterday, the US dollar index fell first and then rose, with the critical point at 18:00 Beijing time. The subsequent US session erased all the declines in the Asian and European markets in the first half. The US dollar index closed higher throughout the day, with the K-line pattern falling to the hammer head. Due to the strong rebound of the US dollar, most non-US eouu.cnpanies have shown a downward trend. For example, EURUSD fell from its highest point of 1.1266 to its closing price of 1.1173, with an amplitude of 93 standard points. The yen performed well, and it still appreciated against the US dollar yesterday. USDJPY fell from 147.48 at the opening to 146.74, and the lowest intraday low was over 145.61.
▲XM chart
From the trend structure perspective, at the daily level, the yen has experienced two rounds of trend declines this year. The rebound high after the first round of decline was around the 0.382 golden section, with a smaller amplitude; the rebound high point of the second round exceeded 0.618, about 0.764, with a high point of 148.64. Due to the large rebound, the rebound high point has entered the first round of decline band, which means that the short trend may reverse and you need to be vigilant. The next round of decline is crucial. If the decline is relatively smooth and falls below the medium-term support level of 139.87 points, the bear trend continues. If the decline is strongly supported within the rebound band, the future market development tends to idle long or fluctuate sideways.
On Monday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said: If the economy and prices improve as expected, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue to raise interest rates. Three this yearIn the month, Japan's core CPI annual rate was 3.2%, the highest level since July 2023 this year. Japan's annual growth rate in Q4 2024 was 1.2%, setting a new high since the fourth quarter of 2023. Economic data is in line with what Uchida Shinichi said "improvement as expected", so it is highly likely that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. In the interest rate decisions in March and May this year, the Bank of Japan chose to suspend interest rate cuts mainly because of the high uncertainty of the United States' policy. When overall expectations are stable, the Bank of Japan is expected to restart interest rate hikes quickly.
▲XM chart
When non-US currencies collectively fell yesterday, the yen was still able to appreciate against the US dollar, mainly because the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates "reverse the global easing trend". Since February last year, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates three times, with the benchmark interest rate rising from -0.1% to 0.5%, an increase of 60 basis points. Japan's Treasury bond yields have also continued to rise with the pace of interest rate hikes, with a 1.48% yield on ten-year Japanese bonds, which is at a relatively high level since the contract was listed. On the contrary, the Federal Reserve is in a cycle of interest rate cuts, and the US Treasury yield also has a medium-term top feature, with significant sideways trends in the past two years. The bond yield divergence between Japan and the US stock market is the core driving force for the appreciation of the yen.
It should be noted that US President Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not actively cutting interest rates in public, and even called the Fed Chairman "Mr. Taichi". Judging from the response of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, his decision will not be disturbed by Trump, and the probability of restarting interest rate cuts in the medium term is not high. Therefore, boosted by the suspension of interest rate cuts, the decline of the US dollar index may not be smooth, and the appreciation trend of the yen is likely to repeat.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.
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