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market analysis

Gold is weak and pays attention to weekly support, while European and American daily resistance is bearish

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Gold is weak and pays attention to weekly support, while European and American daily resistance is bearish." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

The gold market has fluctuated sharply recently, and has significantly pulled back from a historical high, causing heated discussion in the market. The decline in its price is mainly driven by two major factors: First, global trade tensions eased, China and the United States significantly lowered tariffs and suspended some tariffs for 90 days, greatly boosting market risk appetite, investors evacuated safe-haven assets, and gold demand fell; Second, the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, the US dollar index rose 0.08% on Wednesday, the US Treasury yield also hit a six-week high, the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts adjusted, making interest-free assets such as gold less attractive. However, geopolitical risks have not eouu.cnpletely disappeared, and US-EU trade negotiations are progressing slowly, and gold risk aversion demand may be recharged in the future. In the short term, trade optimism and the strengthening of the US dollar may continue to suppress gold prices; but in the medium and long term, geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressure and central bank demand for gold purchases will support gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to factors such as trade negotiations, US economic data, and Federal Reserve policies to seize investment opportunities in the fluctuations of the gold market.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a bottoming out and rebounding on Wednesday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 101.117 on the day, and fell to 100.242 at the lowest, and finally closed at 101.046. Looking back on Wednesday's market performance, the price fluctuated in the early trading period in the short term, and then as the author said, the price fell further. The price before the European session was close to the daily support and then stopped. Then it broke through the early trading high point overnight, and finally the daily line ended with a big positive. Follow-up attention will be paid to further breaking through the four-hour resistance and then making a strong rise.

From the multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed at 102 at the weekly level.90-region resistance, then from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price support position is in the 100.10-20 area over time, so the subsequent bands are bullish. At the same time, according to the four-hour level, as time goes by, the current four-hour resistance is in the 101.10 area, and the subsequent attention is paid to further breaking the price. At the same time, according to the short-term one hour, the market is currently showing a downward adjustment, so before breaking through the four-hour resistance, the daily support will stop, and the price will only continue after breaking through the four-hour resistance.

The US dollar index has a long range of 100.10-20, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 101-101.80

Gold

In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a decline on Wednesday. The price rose to the highest point of 3256.89 on the day, and fell to the lowest point of 3167.86 on the spot, closing at 3177.27 on the spot. Regarding the price of gold was under pressure again after a short-term fluctuation in the early trading period, although the European session rebounded upward, it did not break through the early trading high point, and at the same time it was suppressed at four-hour resistance. Therefore, the US session was under pressure again and broke through the 3200 position. Finally, the daily line ended with a big negative end. Focusing on the subsequent focus on the price retracement on the weekly line, the key support area of 3100.

From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four-month period, so according to the rhythm, there have been four consecutive positives. For the current May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3100 area. So from the mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. The price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise, but we need to pay attention to the price retracement weekly support. From the daily level, after the opening on Monday, the price gap directly breaks the daily support position, and the previous support will change the resistance. Currently, the upper daily resistance is in the 3286 area, and the gap position is in the 3325 area. At the same time, from the four-hour level, as time goes by, the upper 3207 is currently the key resistance. Although the short-term price is under four-hour resistance, it directly breaks the previous day's low during the morning session today, and the short-term tendency is weak. Before breaking the early high, it will first look at the pressure and follow the weekly support area of 3100.

Within gold 3192-3197, the weak are under pressure, and the focus is on the weekly 3100 regional support below

Europe and the United States

Europe and the United States generally showed an upward trend on Wednesday. The price fell to 1.1163 at the lowest price on the day, and rose to 1.1265 at the highest price, closing at 1.1163 at the highest price on the day.. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Wednesday, the price of the opening in the morning fluctuated in the short term and then ran upward again. When the price approached the daily resistance, it stopped under pressure, and finally broke the early trading low overnight, and the daily line ended with a big negative. Overall, we may pay attention to the daily resistance and the four-hour support range breaking, which will be further continued after breaking.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0800, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.0960 area, and continues to be bullish from the perspective of the mid-line. The price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price breaks the daily support after the recent high fluctuation, and at the same time, the price continues to suppress the daily resistance after the breakdown. For short-term short-term treatment at 1.1270 on the band, it will only turn upward after the subsequent breakdown, otherwise it will be short-term treatment on the right. From the short-term four-hour level, the four-hour resistance position was broken through on Tuesday. The current price is running above the four-hour support. Overall, we focus on the four-hour support and the daily resistance range. We will follow after the subsequent break, focusing on the daily resistance under pressure. After breaking below, we will pay attention to the 1.1150-1.1110 area.

Europe and the United States have a gap of 1.1250-60, defense is 50 points, target 1.1250-1.1110

[Finance data and events that are of focus today] Thursday, May 15, 2025

①The Federal Reserve held a Thomas Laubach Research Association

②Zerosky and Putin to conduct direct negotiations

③ 14:00 The initial value of the first quarter GDP annual rate of the UK

④14:00 The monthly GDP rate of the UK in March three months

⑤14:00 The monthly rate of the UK in March industrial and manufacturing output in March

⑦14:45 The final value of the French April CPI monthly rate

⑧16:00 IEA announced the monthly crude oil market Market report

17:00 Eurozone's first quarter GDP annual rate correction value

⑩17:00 Eurozone's first quarter quarterly adjusted employment final value

17:00 Eurozone's March industrial output monthly rate

20:30 Canadian March wholesale sales monthly rate

20:30 US to May 10

< p>20:30 Monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April

20:30 Monthly rate of PPI in April

20:30 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

20:40 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

21:15 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

21:30 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

21:15 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

20:30 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

21:15 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

20:30 Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States

22:00 US May NAHB Real Estate Market Index

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Gold is weak and pays attention to weekly support, while European and American daily resistance is bearish

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Gold is weak and pays attention to weekly support, while European and American daily resistance is bearish

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