Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
market analysis
The US dollar index hovers below 101, and the market pays attention to "terrorist data"
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the ten thousand white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The US dollar index hovers below 101, and the market is paying attention to "terrorist data". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday, the US dollar index hovered near below 101. This trading day, the US April PPI data and monthly retail sales rate will be released, eouu.cnmonly known as "terror data", and investors need to pay attention to it. In addition, investors need to continue to pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials and changes in the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts; in addition, investors need to pay attention to Trump's trip to the Middle East and the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey, and pay attention to changes in market risk aversion sentiment.
Analysis of major currencies
United States dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.92, down 0.14% during the day. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) tracks the performance of the U.S. dollar (USD) against six major currencies, and fell to the 100 mark on Wednesday at around 100.60. The decline eouu.cnes after U.S. inflation data fell below expectations and confirmation of U.S. and South Korea's negotiations on currencies, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar is at a disadvantage in the face of most major Asian currencies. Technically, on the upside, 101.90 is the first big resistance level to face again, as it already serves as a key level during December 2023 and as the basis for the inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern in the summer of 2024. If the dollar long pushes DXY higher, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) will work at 102.29. On the other hand, the previous resistance level 100.22 is now a solid support, followed by 97.73, close to the 2025 low. Further down, technical support is relatively thin at 96.94, followed by 95.25 and 94.56, meaning new lows not seen since 2022.
1. Source: The United States does not seek a devaluation of the US dollar in tariff negotiations
According to people familiar with the matter, U.S. officials who are negotiating global trade agreements have not tried to include exchange rate policy eouu.cnmitments in the terms of the agreement. The foreign exchange market is fluctuating violently due to concerns that the Trump administration intends to push the devaluation of the US dollar or using trade negotiations to achieve the goal. The South Korean won't exchange rate against the US dollar soared nearly 2% on Wednesday The yen also strengthened, and the NTD rose earlier this month hit a decades-long high. The person said that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent Bescent is the only member of Trump's economic team in charge of exchange rate affairs and did not authorize other officials to negotiate exchange rate policy with trading partners. The negotiations will only take place when he personally participates.
2. The European Central Bank asked banks to assess the demand for the dollar during a period of stress, due to concerns that Trump will not be able to rely on the Federal Reserve under the rule.
People familiar with the matter said thatCentral Bank regulators in the continent are asking some euro zone banks to assess demand for the dollar during a period of stress as they are studying the inability to rely on the Fed under the Trump administration. Nearly one-fifth of euro zone banks’ demand for funds is denominated in US dollars, which borrow short-term funds in the market, which may suddenly close during times of financial stress. In the past, the ECB borrowed US dollars from the Federal Reserve (the source of the US dollar) to fill this gap. Two sources said the Fed never said (including now) that it would not support the measures. Nevertheless, fears the Fed's position may change as Trump's doubts about a long-standing defense and trade agreement with European allies sparked distrust.
3. Japan Economic eouu.cnmission urges investment of $400 billion to increase productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises
The economic advisory group of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba proposed a five-year plan, proposing to invest $400 billion to increase productivity of small enterprises, a key link in the Japanese government's pursuit of wage growth far exceeding inflation. Small and medium-sized enterprises employ 70% of Japan's labor force and have been working hard to raise wages because they have made more profits in wages than large enterprises. The goal set by this five-year plan is to stably achieve the goal of real wage increases of 1% higher than inflation. Specific measures include 60 trillion yen (US$407.86 billion) in the public and private sectors over the next five years to allow SMEs to digitally or automatically operate, and strengthen support to facilitate mergers and acquisitions.
4. The UK's unemployment rate is rising, and the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates twice this year.
Penson Macro chief British economist Robert Wood said that as the job market gradually weakens, the Bank of England may cut interest rates twice this year. Data released this week show that the UK's unemployment rate is rising, but is slower than sharply, while wage growth is slowing. The Bank of England's policy eouu.cnmittee can relax interest rates. Still, there are signs that some potential factors are keeping wages growing rapidly and preventing inflation from reaching the central bank's 2% target. This means the Bank of England is unlikely to cut interest rates continuously, but after the rate cuts in February and May, there is room for two more interest rates this year.
5. Britain and the EU will hold the last round of negotiations in Albania to discuss restarting bilateral relations
British Prime Minister Stamer will hold "last-minute talks" with EU leaders in Albania this week to finalize the restart of bilateral relations after Brexit. At present, the debate between the two sides on details has entered a critical stage. Less than a week before the EU-UK summit in London on May 19, and the two sides are still discussing fisheries, youth mobility, student access and a new agricultural products trade deal, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Starmer will attend the European Political eouu.cnmunity Summit in Tirana, Albania, on Friday, and British officials are expected to use the opportunity to finalize the final eouu.cnmuniqué for next week's EU summit. An EU official said:Starmer needs some bilateral talks in Tirana to resolve this issue. ”
Institutional View
1. JPMorgan Chase: Raising U.S. Treasury yield forecasts
Strategists led by JPMorgan Chase Jay Barry raised their expectations for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, previously expected to be 4%. Raising U.S. Treasury yield forecasts to 3.5%, previously expected to be 3%. Tariff frictions initiated by US President Trump The easing has been positive for the growth of the US economy, and the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts. Earlier, JPMorgan Chase economists have pushed the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut from September to December.
2. Institutions: The euro is unlikely to replace the dollar as a world reserve currency
MonexEurope analyst Nick Rees said that the importance of the euro as a reserve currency may increase in the next few years. But it may still be the second best option after the dollar. Trump’s antics weakened the attractiveness of the dollar, he said, but any move to the euro would be trivial. This is not the end of the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. The U.S. economy is larger than the euro zone and more integrated, and the European government bond market is far from the perfect alternative to U.S. Treasury bonds. eouu.cnpared with the U.S. government, the EU is “as an administrative system, more institutionally incorrect.” "In addition, the division of the euro zone is still a topic of occasional debate.
3. Mitsubishi UF: The US dollar still has a long way to go before it loses its reserve currency status.
Mitsubishi UF analyst Derek Halpenny said in a report that the US dollar is unlikely to lose its position as a world reserve currency in the short term. "Of course there are examples of the long-term depreciation of the US dollar, but this does not necessarily mean that the US dollar's reserve currency status is losing. "However, he said that the proportion of the US dollar in foreign exchange reserves may continue to decline gradually in the future. The depreciation of the US dollar and the intervention of central banks in Asia for reducing their purchases of the US dollar due to opposition from the US, strengthened this prospect. The US dollar still has enough room to depreciate, and there is no need to think that its reserve currency status will be threatened.
The above content is about "[XM Group]: The US dollar index hovers below 101, and the market pays attention to "terror data"". It is carefully eouu.cnpiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thank you for your support!
In fact, responsibility is not helpless, not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life today. I will work hard to organize the article.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Group】--USD/MYR Forex Signal: Tests Key Resistance
- 【XM Forex】--USD/PHP Forecast: USD Weakens Against PHP: Market in Limbo
- 【XM Market Analysis】--Gold Forecast: Gold Continues to Grind Back and Forth
- 【XM Group】--ETH/USD Forex Signal: Ethereum Holds $3600 Support
- 【XM Decision Analysis】--EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Struggles Below 1.06