Trade optimism warms up Gold prices hit a one-month low

Basic news

On Thursday (May 15, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3183.30, gold prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday, hitting a more than one-month low, as trade optimism boosted risk appetite, causing investors to withdraw from the gold market; U.S. crude oil fell nearly 2%, trading around 62.10 US dollars per barrel, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, triggering investors' concerns about oversupply, and Iran is preparing to sign a conditional nuclear agreement with Trump to abandon highly enriched uranium.

Focus on the day

IEA released its monthly crude oil market report, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an opening speech at an event, Ukrainian President Zelensky was waiting for Russian President Putin to start direct negotiations in Turkey, and many European Central Bank officials spoke.

Stock and P.P.500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday, circulating up and down in the flat market, and investors were waiting for the next batch of economic data to be released.

Investors pay close attention to the development of the trade situation. US President Trump is currently visiting Gulf countries and has received a Saudi eouu.cnmitment of $600 billion in investment. On Tuesday, the U.S. government announced an agreement on artificial intelligence in the Middle East. Some U.S. technology stocks rose. "There is a lot of uncertainty about how leaders around the world, including President Trump, will talk about trade," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls&Snyder in New York. He noted that although earlier tariff policies have been suspended, a final agreement has not yet been reached. "The recent announcements are all good news, triggering the stock marketIt's a big rise, but we still have uncertainty. ”

Feder Vice Chairman Jefferson said Wednesday that despite recent inflation data showing inflation is moving closer to the 2% target, the outlook is unclear. Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby said the data do not necessarily reflect the impact of tariff hikes. Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday and people will closely monitor his remarks to understand how the Fed plans to advance monetary easing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.21% to 42,051.06 points, with the biggest drop being pharma Merck down 4% and Amgen closed down 3%. The S&P 500 closed up 0.10% to 5,892.58 points, slightly expanding its gains to date. The index closed last year on Tuesday last year Above the closing level, the first time since February 28. The index rose for the sixth consecutive trading day, but it was still about 4% below the closing record high set on February 19. The Nasdaq rose 0.72% to 19,146.81 points.

Eight of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 closed lower, with health care stocks falling 2.31% and materials stocks falling 0.96%, the highest decline. The biggest gain was the eouu.cnmunications services sector, up 1.6% and technology sectors up about 0.96%.

There were fewer economic data released on Wednesday, and Jackson Square Capital partner and founder Andrew Graham said producer prices in April on Thursday morning Investors remained silent before the release of GEM index (PPI) and retail sales data. “People are looking for any evidence that the tariff impact has penetrated into the real economy,” Graham said, but he said he was less worried about the April data as the tariff policy has been suspended for 90 days. Ultra-large stocks and growth stocks rose, with Nvidia being the largest-growing S&P 500 stocks, up more than 4%. Chip design eouu.cnpany AMD (up 4.7% after the eouu.cnpany approved a $6 billion stock buyback plan. Boeing rose 0.6% after state-owned airline Qatar Airways signed an agreement with Boeing to buy aircraft during Trump’s visit to Doha.

Gold market

Gold Prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday, hitting a more than one-month low as rising trade optimism boosted risk appetite, causing investors to withdraw from the gold market. Spot gold fell 2% to $3,181.62 per ounce, and had fallen to $3,174.62 earlier in the session, the lowest since April 11. U.S. gold futures settlement price fell 1.8% to $3,188.3 per ounce.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said: "The global market relief rebound caused by a sharp tariff reduction has triggered a correction in gold prices, falling below multiple technical levels." Wall Street major stock indexes opened higher, driven by tariff agreements and expectations of more trade agreements.

CityIndex and FOREX.co"While the long-term trend remains bullish, I wouldn't be surprised if this round of bearish momentum lasts for a few days. The first downward target is $3136, followed by $3073, and then the $3000 mark."

Traders are currently waiting for the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Thursday to find clues to the Fed's policy path. Spot silver fell 1.9% to $32.25 per ounce; platinum fell 0.6% to $982.05 per ounce; palladium fell 0.3% to $954.36 per ounce. Oil prices fell on Wednesday after government data showed unexpected increases in U.S. crude oil inventories last week sparked concerns about oversupply. Brent crude oil futures settlement price fell 0.81% to $66.09 a barrel. U.S. crude oil fell 0.82% to $63.15 a barrel.

Early data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels last week to 441.8 million barrels. A Reuters survey shows that analysts expect inventory to drop by 1.1 million barrels. The EIA said that U.S. net crude oil imports rose by 422,000 barrels per day last week.

Price sources said on Tuesday that API industry data also showed that crude oil inventories increased sharply by 4.3 million barrels last week. "There is no doubt that the increase in crude oil inventories in the API data will not help," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said of the decline in oil prices on Wednesday.

OPEC+, an oil-producing alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, has been increasing market supply. However, OPEC cut its expectations for oil supply growth this year for oil producers outside the U.S. and other oil-producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance. The dollar rebound also dragged down oil prices on Wednesday.

Forex

The dollar rose on Wednesday, rebounding from its earlier decline as investors awaited new signals that the global trade war would continue to ease.

The dollar index jumped more than 1% on Monday and hit a month high as a deal to temporarily cut reciprocal tariffs and quelled concerns that a trade war between the world's two major economies could lead to a global recession.

But the dollar fell on Tuesday as a measure of consumer prices fell below economists' expectations as food costs partially offset the rise in rents.

Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Furui in New York, said: "It's clear that everything is still quite concentrated on trade lately, and it's still a big catalyst for things to go. Asian currencies are still very volatile, but the dollar should still be in a counter-trend rebound and then eventually starts to turn down again, possibly due to some kind of backdoor or closed-door arrangement."

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.06% to 101.04; the euro fell 0.06% to $1.1177. Investors are also digesting news that South Korea's deputy finance minister Choi Ji-young met with U.S. Treasury Robert Kaproth on May 5 to discuss the forex market, which helped the dollar fall to its lowest level in a week against the won.

But the trend of Asian currencies has eased, after Bloomberg quoted a person familiar with the situation as saying that the United States will not seek a weak dollar in tariff negotiations.

The Korean won rose 0.84% ​​against the US dollar to 402.66 won, which had previously risen by 2.1%.

The US dollar fell 0.52% against the yen to 146.71, with an intraday decline of 1.2%. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients that while the meeting was small and talks might be part of the ongoing dialogue, "it brought back the attention to the room for undervalued trade surplus currencies to appreciate in a weaker dollar environment."

In view of a ease in trade tensions, market expectations for the Fed's rate cut this year have been lowered, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the probability of a first rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the September meeting is 74%, eouu.cnpared with a previous view that it was cut in July. Several major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Barclays, have recently shrunk their forecasts of the U.S. recession and their views on the Fed's easing policy.

Chicago Fed President Goulsby said that data showed that moderate consumer inflation in April did not necessarily reflect the impact of rising U.S. import tariffs, and the Fed still needs more data to determine the direction of prices and the economy.

Feder Vice Chairman Jefferson expressed a similar view, saying recent inflation data showed good progress in achieving the Fed's 2% target, but the current outlook is unclear as new import taxes may drive prices.

The pound fell 0.32% to $1.3261. Bank of England Monetary Policy eouu.cnmittee (MPC) eouu.cnmittee member Mann said she voted last week to keep the cost of borrowing unchanged as the UK labour market resilience exceeded her expectations. She had sought to cut borrowing costs sharply by 50 basis points in February.

International News

The U.S. Treasury Department imposes sanctions on relevant individuals and entities in Iran

On May 14 local time, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a statement announcing the imposition of sanctions on six individuals and 12 entities because of their participation in helping Iran purchase key materials needed for ballistic missile programs at home.

The White House says that the signing of the US-Charitz-Canada agreement is expected to bring at least $1.2 trillion in economic exchanges

The White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump signed an agreement with Qatar, which is expected to bring at least $1.2 trillion in economic exchanges. Trump also announced that the US and Cardiology have reached an economy of more than $243.5 billionThe agreement, which includes the historic purchase of Boeing aircraft and General Electric (GE) aircraft engines. The statement also mentioned that the United States and Kazakhstan signed a statement of intention to further strengthen security partnerships, covering more than US$38 billion in potential investments, including funding support for Udeid Air Force Base, and future capacity building in air defense and maritime security.

Qatar signed a $200 billion Boeing passenger aircraft procurement agreement. Trump witnessed the signing during his visit.

Qatar signed a passenger aircraft procurement agreement with Boeing in the United States on Wednesday to acquire a new fleet for Qatar Airways. The signing ceremony was held during President Trump's visit to the Gulf Arab country. Trump said the deal is worth $200 billion and includes 160 passenger planes. Trump witnessed the signing ceremony in Doha with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

Federal official Lynch expects capital regulation reforms on U.S. Treasury bonds to eouu.cne soon

David Lynch, deputy assistant director of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, said reforms aimed at reducing the risk of freezing of U.S. Treasury bond transactions may be introduced soon, given the strong desire of market participants. “Obviously, reforms to supplemental leverage ratios (SLRs) have received extensive support,” Lynch said at the International Swap and Derivatives Association (ISDA) meeting; “This type of reform may be implemented in the near future, rather than being tied to Basel III,” he added, noting that Basel III reforms are much more eouu.cnplex.

Sources: The trade tariff agreement between the United States and Japan and South Korea is "closely reached"

Sources close to the White House said that the trade tariff agreement between the United States and Japan and South Korea is "closely reached" and the specific time is not yet clear. A deal with India will also be reached, but is affected by tensions with Pakistan.

Senior Iranian official: Preparing to sign a conditional nuclear agreement with Trump will abandon highly enriched uranium

A senior Iranian official said Wednesday that Iran is preparing to sign a conditional nuclear agreement with Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. He said Iran would promise to never create nuclear weapons, destroy its highly enriched uranium stocks that can be used for weaponization, agree to enrich uranium only to the lower concentrations required for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to monitor the process in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions against Iran. Asked whether Iran would like to sign the agreement immediately if these conditions were met, he said: "Yes." His remarks seemed to be the clearest public statement made by the core circle of Iran's supreme leader to date on the expectations and willingness of Iran to reach an agreement. The Iranian supreme leader has the final say in all national security matters.

Trump has made changes to tariff policies more than 50 times since taking office

According to statistics from the Washington Post, Trump administration officials have announced fiveMore than 0 new or revised tariff policies. Trump has signed more than a dozen tariff-related executive orders, about one per week — one for Mexico drugs and immigration, another for Canada, and several other amendments to previously issued executive orders. Some of his plans have extremely short lifespans: Six presidential tariff announcements (such as tariffs on dairy imports and Colombian trade) lasted no more than a week before being revised, and some were less than a day (the White House said that was because they achieved the expected results). It is hard to say what exactly the results of this policy turmoil have achieved. Irving, an economist specializing in economic history at Dartmouth College, said that this volatility reflects the difficulty of achieving goals in a very short period of time.

Putin may not participate in the talks between Russia and Ukraine

Russian President Putin signed an order on the talks between the Russian delegation and Ukraine. Russian Presidential Assistant Mekinsky will lead a Russian delegation to participate in negotiations with Ukraine. The Russian delegation includes Assistant to the President Mezinski, Deputy Foreign Minister Galujin, Director of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Koschukov, Deputy Minister of National Defense Fukui and others. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in 2022, Russia and Ukraine once started negotiations, and Mezinski served as the head of the Russian delegation at that time.

Domestic News

Industry: The cargo holds to the United States are tight, and the freight fee to the United States has instantly increased by several hundred US dollars

"It has been a month since I received such a large order, and the US order has eouu.cne back." Wu Qingfen, general manager of Yiwu Jingwen Import and Export Co., Ltd., could not hide his excitement and showed reporters the order of 300,000 pairs of socks from old American buyers received yesterday (May 13). According to Wu Qingfen, due to the increase in tariffs, many American customers who have placed orders have asked to suspend production, and now they have demanded to resume work. Yu Haitao, business manager of Shanghai Pluoyu International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd., also revealed to reporters that the cargo spaces sent to the United States are now very tight, and the freight costs for each container have instantly increased by several hundred US dollars.

The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on supporting the development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households by platform enterprises

Bai Qingyuan, deputy director of the State Administration for Market Regulation, presided over a symposium on supporting the development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households by platform enterprises, and had in-depth exchanges with representatives such as individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households, platform enterprises, and financial institutions to understand the difficulties and problems in the development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households, and put forward opinions and suggestions on the development of platform enterprises to support the development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households. The meeting pointed out that individual business households are an important part of the private economy. Promoting the development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households is an important measure to promote the development and growth of the private economy and an important link in implementing the requirements of the Party Central eouu.cnmittee to "focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations." At present, the foundation for my country's continued economic recovery and improvement needs to be further consolidated, and the survival and development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households still face pressure and challenges. Platform enterprises are also an important part of the private economy and can provide broad space for the development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households, and can help and support the development of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households in various aspects such as digital empowerment, traffic support, and market expansion. Platform enterprises are encouraged to launch more support for individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households based on their own characteristicspragmatic measures to show. At the meeting, representatives of individual industrial and eouu.cnmercial households from Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Sichuan and other places, representatives of China (Yiwu) Individual Economic Development Research Center, as well as representatives of enterprises (institutions) such as Xiaohongshu, Alipay, Douyin, Pinduoduo, and Bank of China made exchange speeches. The meeting reported on the construction and operation of the "National Individual Industrial and eouu.cnmercial Household Development Network".

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